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Every month, the National Institute of Public Health presents a risk assessment for the coronary pandemic in Norway.
The report indicates that the number of cases reported in September and October was higher than in August, and significantly higher than from April to July. Anyway, the number of admissions is low.
The increase may be due to a high level in Oslo and a series of outbreaks in other municipalities. Increased testing also means that a large proportion of cases are actually detected.
FHI writes that the situation is still under control, but that we should expect more local outbreaks in the fall.
The risk of further spread of the infection is now considered high locally and moderate at the regional and national levels.
– Even if we see a little disturbing numbers and the infection does not go down, it does not rise abruptly. We are not there to sound all the alarms. We must follow the situation closely, make sure we don’t miss an important moment that is crucial to gaining control, says health director Bjørn Guldvog.
Some can infect many
Several outbreaks have started with large concentrations of people, especially in private companies. You can create massive infection events.
– Mass infection events may be the main driver of the pandemic. There is a high proportion that do not spread the disease, but few that infect many, says FHI Director Camilla Stoltenberg.
The NIPH has found that 80% of the spread of infection may occur in only 10% to 20% of infected people.
The greatest risk of a massive infection event is if a person with high infectivity is present for a long time in a crowded room with little air exchange.
Various local shoots
– We are concerned that the situation in Oslo will lead to a regional outbreak. Oslo alone now accounts for 40 percent of cases in the country, writes FHI in the risk report.
Since the beginning of August, many municipalities have had local outbreaks.
It seems that the breeding number is now just above and below 1, but sometimes it goes up a little higher on local shoots.
There is good treatment capacity in municipalities and hospitals throughout the country, and there is no shortage of protective equipment for health personnel.
– If regional flares or a national wave were to occur, it is more likely to happen in the winter when people gather indoors to a greater extent, writes FHI.
In order to slow down the spread, FHI wants to expand infection monitoring.
– We want to go further back to find the close contacts of the source of the infection in time. Tracking infections is one of the most important means of controlling the epidemic, says Stoltenberg.
The measures seem to be working
FHI writes in the report that we have to live with this pandemic for many months, maybe years. Measures to reduce infection are also something we must live with in the future.
After the observations, FHI sees that fewer people perceived the coronavirus as a threat. Poor enforcement of the distance rule has been reported in parks, restaurants, and public transportation.
Now it may appear that compliance is better and Health Director Bjørn Guldvog emphasizes that the measures work.
– Preliminary estimates from Imperial College researchers say Norway may have prevented 12,000 deaths with the measures that have been implemented. We don’t know if it will last in time, but it still says something about how dramatic the pandemic could have been if we hadn’t had action, says Guldvog.
Severity of disease
There is no evidence that the virus has changed and now causes milder illness. The virus is as dangerous in the elderly as it has ever been.
Children rarely get serious illnesses. Teens, young adults, and middle-aged people can get very sick.
The disease is significantly more dangerous for the elderly. People with heart disease, lung disease, cancer, and diabetes also seem to be more affected.
– So far, almost 90% of deaths have occurred in the group for 70 years, writes FHI.
