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– Since the start of the epidemic, we estimate that a total of 97,000 people in Norway have been infected, writes FHI in its latest pandemic modeling report.
This number describes the situation on Sunday, and with the pressure of the infection today, the number of infected since then has probably exceeded 100,000.
However, there is great uncertainty about the number, in part because infection cases are detected far from all. The NIPH estimates that the 32,767 confirmed cases of infection that were recorded on Sunday represent about 34 percent of the total.
With a 95 percent certainty, it is established that there have been between 86,000 and 109,000 infected in Norway.
Decrease
The latest FHI weekly report shows that the spread of the infection has stopped and that for the first time since the first half of October, fewer infected people were reported than the previous week.
– The reduction in the number of infections may be due to the fact that we are seeing results from the new measures. We hope and believe that that is the reason, at least the most important reason. But it may also be the result of fewer people being tested, said the director of the National Institute of Public Health, Camilla Stoltenberg, when she presented the figures at the government’s crown press conference on Wednesday.
FHI notes in the weekly report that the number of test subjects dropped by 16 percent from week 46 to week 47.
As many infected as in April
In the model report, infection in the community is estimated to be the same as in April, during the previous peak of the pandemic. In April, far fewer infections were recorded in FHI systems, but far fewer were also tested.
The national R number, which shows how many new ones are transmitted to each infected person, is now estimated at 1.01, based on calculations for the November 5 period. If the infection situation remains at the same level, you will have approximately the same number of infected daily in the future.
FHI estimates that it will have around 1,300 infected daily in a week with the current infection situation. This includes both proven cases of infection and those that go undetected.
The latest figures, which came in late Thursday, show that 551 new cases of infection were recorded during the past 24 hours.
Increases in eastern Norway
Regional variations in infection status are large. Now only in eastern Norway FHI claims that the infection is increasing. This applies to both Oslo and Viken, where the R-number is estimated at 1.3, while FHI describes the trend within as “likely to increase”.
The trend of infection is described as uncertain in Agder, Nordland, Rogaland, Troms and Finnmark, Trøndelag, Vestfold and Telemark and Vestland. Most of these counties have an R number of less than 1, but there is great uncertainty associated with the accuracy of this calculation.
Møre og Romsdal is the only county in the country with a “probably downward” infection trend.
R numbers in counties are calculated as follows (for the period from October 26 to now):
Agder: 1.1
Inside: 1.4
More og Romsdal: 0.7
Nordland: 0.7
Oslo: 1.3
Rogaland: 0.9
Troms and Finnmark: 0.9
Trøndelag: 1.0
Vestfold and Telemark: 0.9
Vestland: 1.0
Bay: 1.3
