Fear of contagion: – – Christmas can cost us dearly

Friday is the start of the Christmas holidays this year for many.

After an autumn in which you have been encouraged to avoid domestic travel and stay as long as possible at home, it is considered that a trip home for Christmas can be a necessary trip for many.

But despite the fact that the infection curve in Norway has flattened, the situation remains very uncertain, and already the week before Christmas, new infection records are set in several municipalities.

– We won’t be surprised if we see an increase in infection rates, department director Line Vold told Dagbladet on Tuesday.

NTNU professor Steinar Westin believes Norway has failed to reduce the infection sufficiently before Christmas arrives.

– You must be prepared to cancel on Christmas Eve

– Very risky

– There was a desire to lower it, but we have not succeeded. This means that we are moving into an uncertain situation where many people now have to travel to and from other municipalities this Christmas, says Westin.

He is a physician and professor of social medicine in the Department of Community Medicine and believes that Christmas trips offer “many opportunities for infection.”

– It is a very risky situation and we must be prepared for a nasty boom just after Christmas or early January. I cross my fingers and hope it doesn’t go as bad as I fear, but we’ve seen how quickly this infection can break out.

– Do you think the government has become too loose?

– Yes, really, also with this quarantine-free labor immigration. But now Høie has carefully said that up to ten people can be visited twice at Christmas. That does not mean that one should.

Westin believes that the news about vaccines and Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s remarks about the start of the vaccine at Christmas have led many to believe that rescue is around the corner.

– It’s very bad, he says.

Professor Torgrim Log from the Department of Safety, Chemistry and Bioengineering at the University College of Western Norway (HVL) also says that he had wished that the government would not open up so more people would meet twice this Christmas.

– I’m on the conservative side and I think it would have been better to be a bit too restrictive. I wish the government hadn’t opened up to this. If it’s dangerous, we’ll find out after Christmas, Log tells Dagbladet.

– Hold your breath

Westin notes, among other things, that there is still much we do not know about the vaccine, as if it could also protect those vaccinated against further transmission. And in addition, initially you will be limited with vaccine doses.

– Do not think that vaccines help us in the situation we have now. What happens after Christmas is completely independent of vaccinations, so I hold my breath, he says.

In Denmark, which currently has thousands of new infections every day, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warns that the toughest months of the pandemic are yet to come. January and February can be the hardest, and he’s chosen to shut down the entire country, except for grocery stores and pharmacies, on the first day of Christmas.

These rules apply at Christmas

“Like the Danes, I’m afraid we’re going to have this Christmas boom that could cost us dearly,” says Westin.

– That we have a situation like Denmark, not to mention Sweden, is the great fear.

So far, the so-called TISK strategy – testing, isolation, infection detection and quarantine – works excellently in Norway, believes the NTNU professor. However, both Health Minister Bent Høie, NIPH and the Norwegian Health Directorate have repeatedly warned that the strategy is vulnerable, and if broken, the infection will spread uncontrollably in Norway.

– And if you do, it may be too late to apply the emergency brake. We can only hope that we can avoid a new total lockdown, as in March.

Receive support from Professor Log.

Has no infected – adopts bandage order

– There is currently generally high infection pressure in Norway, and we have also seen how easily it has taken off in our neighboring countries, so we are at a time where it is important to be careful, says Log.

– If we can celebrate Christmas with special care, we have a simpler 2021 ahead.

– reckless

One of the municipalities that now registers more people infected in a day than ever during the pandemic is Porsgrunn.

The mayor of the municipality of Porsgrunn, Robin Kåss, fears that the relief of Christmas could be interpreted a bit as the virus is now less contagious.

– The virus does not care about the intention to be together, be it Christmas or birthdays. The fact that some loosening of the restrictions has been signaled this Christmas is a good idea, but it can be interpreted a bit as that the virus is less contagious now, and it is not. So I think it would be unwise to have our own national councils for Christmas. At the same time, I understand the government well and that they want to be complacent.

The mayor of Sarpsborg municipality, Sindre Martinsen-Evje, also tells Dagbladet that he fears that the inhabitants are not good enough to follow national measures.

– What we see now is that there are many who have symptoms and infection, and who are not at home or taking the test. It’s challenging, and there’s probably a lot of initiative fatigue, he says.

The cases have not ended with any police cases, he says.

Considering stricter Christmas measures

– But we see it when we do infection detection, that unfortunately there are many who can get tested too late and that, consequently, have had many close contacts.

– Now we need society to make an additional contribution and follow national advice and recommendations and local regulations.

– Share Denmark’s concern

Deputy Health Director Espen Nakstad tells Dagbladet that it won’t be long before we lose control of the infection in Norway.

It notes, among other things, that the clear decline in infection that occurred in early December has now stopped and that several outbreaks related to specific geographic areas, settings and schools have proven difficult to control quickly and completely. This is especially true in eastern Norway.

– FHI has estimated that only about 60 percent of all infected people are detected through testing, and the pattern of movement of people towards Christmas is high. Therefore, it is demanding to reduce the level of infection with traditional testing alone and tracking infections of the 40 percent believed to be captured by testing.

– In Denmark, the Prime Minister expects January and February to be the worst months of the pandemic. Do you do that in Norway too?

– Eerily high numbers

January and February are winter months in which there is traditionally some spread of the infection because people are more indoors than at any other time of the year. We share the concern that this could contribute to an increase in infection compared to the warmer seasons, Nakstad responds.

– Important for motivation

– To what extent do you fear that the lighter Christmas restrictions could lead to an increase in infection?

– We do not necessarily believe that the celebration of Christmas leads to an increase in infection compared to the normal working weeks before Christmas, as mobility in society is very high. We are most concerned about the spread of infection after Christmas, when many are back in everyday life with more contact with others. More Christmas celebrations are also making a comeback in countries with significantly higher infection levels than in Norway, Nakstad tells Dagbladet.

– How have you made the assessment that you can meet more people at Christmas?

– Among other things, the need for people to celebrate Christmas and meet relatives they have not seen for a long time has influenced this assessment. The Christmas holidays are also important to keep you motivated to continue following infection control advice in a difficult pandemic. And it is important for mental health to be able to celebrate Christmas for many Norwegians, responds Nakstad.