Ethiopia is at risk of a protracted guerrilla war. The hunt for rebel leaders has begun.



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The capital of Tigray has been captured by the government army. A protracted guerrilla war could be next for Ethiopia. Refugees arriving in Sudan miss almost everything.

There are very few images of the province of Tigray. This image was taken from a video showing government soldiers before entering Tigray. The video is from November 16. Photo: Ethiopian News Agency / AP / NTB

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared on Saturday that “the military operation in Tigray has been completed.” It did so after the government army took control of Mekele, the capital of the rebel province of Tigray.

But the rebels of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) refuse to surrender. TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael told Reuters his forces had withdrawn from Mekele, but would continue to fight. This runs the risk of a long-lasting guerrilla war.

Gebremichael describes the uprising as a fight for the region’s right to self-determination. Tigers make up only about 6 percent of Ethiopia’s multi-ethnic population. However, the TPLF has a history as the dominant force in Ethiopia’s national politics for the past 30 years.

Refugees from Tigray look down on a refugee camp in Sudan. Photo: Nariman El-Mofty / AP / NTB

He is no stranger to guerrilla warfare.

Mountainous Tigray has a tradition of guerilla warfare. The TPLF fought for years against the Marxist regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam, until it was overthrown in 1991.

“While it is unclear how much remains for the security forces in Tigray, it is possible that the armed opposition to the central government will receive support from the region’s authorities, the party apparatus, including local militias and other nationalist elements,” said lead analyst Will Davison of the International Crisis think tank. Group to Reuters.

Debretsion Gebremichael, who has been elected president of the Tigray region, is leading the uprising against Addis Ababa. The photo is from last year. Photo: STATE OF TIKSA / Reuters / NTB

He wants to hunt down “criminals”

Prime Minister Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year, describes the invasion of Tigray as a police action against a criminal clique. Foreign attempts to mediate the conflict have been labeled as unwanted interference.

Now the hunt for the rebel leaders has begun. At least 117 have been wanted for everything from treason to embezzlement. It is unknown if any of them have been arrested. It is very difficult for independent media to obtain information from Tigray. Journalists are denied access, while telephone lines and the Internet are down.

Women fleeing Tigray photographed during Sunday mass in the Umm Rakouba refugee camp in Qadarif, Sudan. Photo: Nariman El-Mofty / AP / NTB

44,000 have fled

It is not known how many have died in the fighting in Tigray, but there are said to be several thousand, according to Reuters. Almost 44,000 have fled to neighboring Sudan.

Authorities have not said how many people died when the government army took control of Mekele, a city of 500,000 people. According to the Red Cross, Mekele hospitals are running out of supplies.

A hospital must have run out of body bags.

Berte Marie Ulveseter is the Sudan Country Representative for Norwegian Church Aid. He recently visited two of the refugee camps for Ethiopian refugees in Sudan. Photo: Norwegian Church Aid

Hungry, thirsty and scared

Many of the refugees who have come from Tigray province to Sudan have had to flee head-on and are missing almost everything. So says Berte Marie Ulveseter, National Manager of Norwegian Church Aid in Sudan.

– They are thirsty, they are hungry. They have seen people killed, says Ulveseter, who earlier this week visited two of the refugee camps across the border with Ethiopia.

Sudan is a poor country where nine million people need emergency food aid. They already have two million internally displaced persons and 900,000 refugees. However, they have welcomed the new refugees from Ethiopia. Some food, water, sanitary equipment and tents arrived, but the needs are far from being met, according to Ulveseter.

– I visited a camp where there were 12,000 people. They had 58 latrines to share, he says.

44,000 people have fled the Tigray region of Ethiopia to Sudan. Photo: Aid from the Norwegian Church

Children come alone

In addition to helping meet the basic physical needs of the refugees, Norwegian Church Aid will send people who speak the same language as the refugees so they can receive psychological help.

Some refugees report shelling, that they have had to flee in the middle of the night and that their houses have been burned. Some children come alone because they have lost contact with their families.

– I spoke with a man who told me he was working in the border town of Humera when the bombing started. He had no choice but to flee immediately. Now he has lost contact with his wife and five children, says Ulveseter.

In recent days, far fewer refugees from Ethiopia have arrived than before. According to the refugees who have crossed, it is because Ethiopian soldiers have made it difficult to cross the border.

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