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The conflict in the small Nagorno-Karabakh enclave may escalate into a regional war, with Russia supporting on one side and NATO country Turkey on the other.
Armenian separatists, who have controlled the enclave since 1994 and want to incorporate the region into Armenia, declared full military mobilization on Sunday and called on the population to prepare for war. Azerbaijani authorities have declared a state of emergency and war throughout the country.
Sixteen of the separatist soldiers are said to have died and more than a hundred were injured. The fight is between Azerbaijan on the one hand and the Armenian separatists with the support of Armenia on the other.
But both sides have powerful countries behind them: Armenia has historically been supported by Russia, while Azerbaijan is one of Turkey’s closest allies.
FIVE QUICK POINTS ABOUT THE CONFLICT: The Battle of Nagorno-Karabakh
COUNTER-ATTACK: According to the Armenian defense, this image is of tanks carrying out a counterattack against a military vehicle from neighboring Azerbaijan.
Threats from both sides
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is quoted in the regime newspaper Daily Sabah as saying that “Armenia is the biggest threat to the region”, and says that Turkey will disagree with its brothers in Azerbaijan.
In the newspaper Russia Today, a purely propaganda tool for the Vladimir Putin regime, the conflict is widely covered in capitalized types of war: “TAKE YOUR WEAPONS,” he says. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already started talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pasjinian on how Russia can support them.
The powerful President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has for years threatened to “drink tea” in the neighboring country; a poorly hidden threat to invade to take back the enclave.
On the Armenian side, the newly elected prime minister also promised to strengthen the army and played on the danger of an invasion by the arch-enemy to strengthen himself politically.
NATO Warns of Dangerous Escalation and Calls for a Ceasefire; an appeal that the EU has also issued.
RETENTION STAFF: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pasjinian has promised to support the separatists.
Escape from the previous war
Gunel Movlud is an Azerbaijani journalist and author living in Norway. He is fleeing the Azerbaijani regime and has nothing left for those in power in the capital, Baku.
– What is very dangerous is that the government of Azerbaijan has been threatening war for a long time. The Armenian government has also used this as a threat. Since these countries have Turkey and Russia on their side, it can be a very dangerous war, she says.
The author is closely related to what is happening in the controversial enclave: When she was 11 years old, she was among the nearly 750,000 ethnic Azerbaijanis who were forced to flee the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s.
He recently published a book about what he lived through after the escape, when Armenian militias went on the offensive to capture the controversial enclave.
– Before the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a fairly friendly relationship between the peoples, but when the war came, everything changed. Several decades have passed in which the conflict between both countries and ethnic groups has increased and increased. Deep down, the great powers are playing a dangerous game, she says.
Martin Davitian is a board member of the Armenian Cultural Association in Norway and was recently in Armenia. He tells VG that he did not realize that there was fear of war during the trip.
– We have heard for years that Azerbaijan will attack and recently equipped the military. But we didn’t think this would happen now. I link it to the fact that the President of Azerbaijan wants to differentiate himself from his own people, says Davitian.
– It’s very serious. They have Turkey and Erdogan behind them, but I think the support we receive from Russia can mitigate the danger of a major war, he continues.
Separatists control the enclave populated mainly by Armenians, but it is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, explains Berit Lindeman, who is department head for Eastern Europe and Central Asia at the Norwegian Helsinki Committee for VG.
– The international community has never recognized Armenia’s claim to Nagorno-Karabakh and, according to international law, it is Azerbaijan that will really control the area, he says.
Lindeman has lived and worked in Azerbaijan and is an expert on the human rights situation in the country.
AZERBAIAN ATTACK: These images, from the Azerbaijani side, show an air attack against an Armenian position near the border.
Weapons of Russia
From 1988 to 1994, Nagorno-Karabakh was hit by a war with ethnic Armenians supported by Armenia on the one hand, and Azerbaijani forces supported by Chechen and Afghan fighters on the other.
Lindeman says the area has long been controversial and that there have been sharp fronts between the two countries since the war ended.
– It is an extremely stagnant situation and it has been completely impossible to reach a negotiated solution. The possibility of a full-scale war is great and both sides have equipped themselves, Lindeman says.
Russia has sold many weapons to Armenia, but none of the major powers wants a violent escalation, the expert believes.
Turkey and Russia each support their side in the conflict, but they probably have a good dialogue with each other and a common interest in stopping this, he says.
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Found history
The historical background is complicated and involves the two great powers: during the last years of the Ottoman Empire, the Armenian separatists tried to separate and the entire town was subjected to a brutal deportation between 1915-1920. As a result, between a million and a half Armenians died.
To this day, Turkey denies that genocide was committed, something that 29 other countries have acknowledged happened.
Russian interference may also explain the current situation: under the Soviet Union, both Armenia and Azerbaijan were ruled from Moscow, but despite the fact that the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave has a majority of ethnic Armenians, the region was annexed by Azerbaijan.
BACKGROUND: The last Christians of Turkey: – We fear persecution
P.S: Many attempts have been made to negotiate a peace agreement following the entry into force of the ceasefire in 1994. The so-called Minsk group, made up of France, Russia and the United States, has collaborated as mediators, but without the parties getting close. . The last attempt was made in 2010, NTB writes.