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After being crown for several days, United States President Donald Trump was released from Walter Reed Military Hospital and placed in solitary confinement at the White House last week.
He hadn’t felt better in 20 years, the 74-year-old said after receiving an experimental steroid and antibody treatment at the hospital. He then asked Americans not to fear the global pandemic, which has claimed more than 210,000 lives in the United States alone and a million lives worldwide.
Last night, a week after being discharged, the president stayed on stage during an electoral campaign event that was not marked with either “put’n” or a mask.
Dagbladet reporter Trym Mogen, who is now in the United States, was present at the event and interviewed several of the thousands who attended.
– Kiss the boys
Earlier in the evening, Trump reached out to the states of California and New York, which he believes “are going to hell” and “have gone to hell,” respectively.
So it was not where Trump went to goad his supporters, but Florida, the important seesaw state he won by a narrow margin in 2016 and on which he again depends to win to emerge victorious from the fight against Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. .
And it was a “victorious” Trump who took the stage in Florida.
– It gives you a good feeling when you can beat something (your own crown disease, journ.anm.) And now they say you’re immune, he said during the hour-long speech.
Expert reacts to Dagbladet’s image
– I feel powerful. I’m going into the hearing. I’m going to go in there and I’m going to kiss everyone in the audience. “I’m going to kiss the boys and the beautiful women,” Trump continued.
“Alarming” was the verdict that renowned Harvard epidemiologist Eirc Feigl-Ding rendered on the event in Sanford, outside Orlando.
From a purely infectious point of view, there was almost no need. In the fight to convince new voters, there was no electoral tactical chess move either, believes US expert and researcher Hilmar Mjelde at the Norce research center.
– Trump can take top voters for granted and instead turn to independent voters. That is what underlies the concept of “core selector”. But the salesman Trump doesn’t get it. You prefer to see the customer base who buy your product, Mjelde tells Dagbladet.
– A conical bag
Mjelde describes the president’s signature public gatherings as a “formula for success” for him in 2016.
– Populist movements are by nature leader-centered: public gatherings are fueling the movement. This is the direct contact between Trump and his fans, says the investigator.
– Why does Trump apparently refuse to take the crown pandemic into account when holding such electoral events?
– He knows that the pandemic is a lost cause for him. You should pretend it’s over and rather focus on the “comeback”, on the economy. He’s been doing this since April, Mjelde replies, adding:
– Threats that they could harm you politically are not taken seriously. The two best examples are covid-19 and external interference in the elections of other countries. Rather, Trump gives a distorted version of the position.
The American expert believes that Trump’s handling is characterized by “illusions.”
– He learned illusions as a strategy from the famous pastor Norman Vincent Peale in his youth, says Mjelde.
Greater distance
Trump may have been victorious in his own fight against the corona virus, the virus that has claimed more than 210,000 American lives, but the president has probably done too little too late in the battle for the White House.
In an average of national polls in the United States, Trump’s opponent, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, clearly leads.
The latest average from RealClearPolitics shows that the distance between the two candidates is 10.2 percentage points. There has been no greater distance between the candidates since the end of June.
A probability model from the FiveThirtyEight website gives Biden an 86 percent chance of winning the election in three weeks. The probability of a Trump victory is 13 percent, or an eighth chance.
“Ten percentage points behind”
But a week after Trump was released from Walter Reed Military Hospital in Washington DC, where the president was crown for three days, Trump spoke to his own congregation at the first opportunity.
It was part of the 2016 recipe for success, but the recipe for a 2020 election winner should contain other ingredients, according to American expert Mjelde.
– Trump has held public meetings throughout the year, and is now ten percentage points behind Biden nationally.
– Ask for problems
Trump’s wavering message
American political scientist and expert Henrik Heldahl, a commentator for the online newspaper Amerikanskpolitikk.no, partly shares that assessment.
– Trump does not win the election in such public meetings, but tactically there is nothing wrong with organizing the meetings. You need a forum to give your speeches and get your message across, Heldahl tells Dagbladet.
Rather, he thinks that Trump’s reelection chances are at stake because the message to Trump is not, or has been, compelling enough. This does not mean that Trump has not achieved enough in the White House to win the presidential election again, Heldahl emphasizes.
– For conservatives, Trump has achieved a lot, says the American commentator.
Strong economic growth, two conservative appointments to the United States Supreme Court, tax cuts, cuts in regulations and bureaucracy, and a tougher line toward China are just a few of the things Trump has really accomplished in recent years. .
– A clear message that promoted Trump’s victory, and compared it to negative expectations of what a Trump presidency might have entailed, could have attracted 50 percent of voters, Heldahl says.
Too late?
The same message, if the president and his election campaign manage to formulate it, can still appeal to many. The question is whether it is too late to start now, believes Heldahl.
“This is a job that Trump should have started a long time ago,” said the American commentator.
– What will it take for Trump to change the situation?
– The perfect message should have been established by now. With that, he would have had a slim chance of winning, if Biden makes a mistake, Heldahl responds.
Coming out of isolation, and therefore also the stigma of being a crown patient, remains important to Trump, according to US researcher Mjelde.
