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Two Nettavisen polls show that the Center Party can kidnap many more voters in Oslo.
Wednesday started with the Center Party taking a big leap in Oslo after Labor Party profile Jan Bøhler announced his transfer to the party. This is demonstrated by the recent Oslo survey that Sentio has conducted for Nettavisen and Klassekampen.
The party garners a record 7.5 percent support, which is a total of 5.4 percentage points from the 2017 parliamentary elections. It would also give Bøhler a parliamentary seat for his new party.
And the Bøhler effect has been thrown at many. Another new poll Sentio has conducted for Nettavisen, a little later on Wednesday, shows that Bøhler is more popular than several of the Labor Party profiles on the Oslo Labor Party parliamentary election list for next year’s elections.
When asked which politician he would like in the Storting in Oslo, when he has a choice between Bøhler, Labor leader Jonas Gahr Støre, Labor MP Espen Barth Eide and Oslo County Labor leader Frode Jacobsen, 18 percent answer who want Bøhler.
Bøhler is only beaten by Støre, who is the favorite of 34 percent of those surveyed. While former Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, who was recently kicked out of a safe seat on the Oslo Ap electoral list, 12 percent would prefer to join the Storting.
Only four percent of Oslo county leaders have Oslo as their first choice. Six percent answer that they do not want any of the candidates and 25 percent answer “I don’t know.”
In the survey, 800 people over the age of 18 were interviewed in Oslo. The sample is weighted to better reflect the population in terms of gender and age. The measurement is taken from 2-14. November.
He was called a traitor
When the shocking news of Bøhler’s party change came in early October, after his four terms in the Storting for the Labor Party, it provoked enormous ire among many.
“What a damn self-absorbed traitor”city council politician Andreas Halse (Labor Party) in Oslo wrote on Twitter. Later, Halse had to come out and apologize for his outburst.
Also the former transport councilor in Oslo, Steinar Saghaug (Labor Party), called him a traitor:
“Jan Bøhler, the greatest traitor I have experienced in politics in more than fifty years as a member of the Labor Party, wrote on Facebook.
But the county leader, Frode Jacobsen, was also “very disappointed.”
– I am very disappointed that Jan Bøhler chose to change parties. He held most possible positions in the Labor Party and represented us in the Storting for 16 years. Being a shop steward and being elected by the Labor Party is working for something bigger than yourself, Jacobsen told Nettavisen.
They want Bøhler
However, the new online newspaper poll shows that Bøhler is popular in several groups. If you look at the background figures from the poll, he’s more popular with men in Oslo. Twenty-two percent of men want the 68-year-old man in the Storting, and 14 percent of women.
For Støre and the other Labor leaders, it is almost evenly distributed between women and men.
Bøhler also has the highest support among people between the ages of 60 and 69. 26 percent of respondents in that age group would prefer to have the previous job profile at the Storting. But also among those who are between 50 and 59 years old, and those who are over 70 years old, 23 percent prefer Bøhler.
By comparison, Støre has the most support among those aged 30 to 39 (39 percent) in Oslo, and those over 70 (38 percent), who want him at the Storting. While Jacobsen has the most support from those under 30 (9 percent), and Barth Eide the most from those between 60 and 69 (17 percent).
Also read: Jan Bøhler’s new life: – They wanted to hurt me and hit me
– Not very popular with Labor voters
Not surprisingly, Bøhler, who has worked for Groruddalen in Oslo East for all these years, also has the most support in that part of the city. Twenty-two percent of those surveyed in East Oslo prefer him to the other Labor leaders in the Storting.
While Støre has the most support in central Oslo, where 40 percent place him at the top. In East Oslo, 31 percent would prefer Støre to be on top and 10 percent Barth Eide.
If you look at party preferences, 9 percent of Labor Party voters say they want Bøhler rather than Støre in the Storting in Oslo. By comparison, six percent would prefer Jacobsen and 12 percent have Barth Eide as their favorite. 65 percent want Støre.
Gunnar Stavrum: First they reject Jan Bøhler, then they get furious and call him a fucking traitor
– Bøhler is not very popular with Labor voters. Only 9 percent of those who say they will vote for Labor want Jan Bøhler in the Storting. Naturally, it is much more popular with those who say they want to vote for the Center Party, says Martin Stubban in Sentio to Nettavisen.
Among SP voters, 60 percent say they want Bøhler in the Storting, while of Conservative voters, many want Bøhler as Støre in the Storting.
– Higher Sp growth
In the poll, people in Oslo were also asked how likely they are to vote for the Center Party and Bøhler in next year’s parliamentary elections. A total of 14 percent responded that it is “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that they will vote for the Center Party in Oslo.
– Therefore, there is potential for further growth of the Center Party, says Stubban.
He notes that the Center Party also received support of 9.8 percent in Bergen and 10.3 percent in Trondheim earlier this fall.
– The time when the Center Party was mentioned as only for the people of the districts seems, therefore, to have ended, you believe.
Of those surveyed, the majority of men (9 percent) respond that they are highly likely to vote for the Center Party in Oslo, while women lag behind (5 percent). At the same time, as many women as men answer that it is a little probable.
If you look at the age groups that have been asked, the survey shows that the majority of people over 70 are certain that they will vote for the Center Party (11 percent). While only three percent of people between 30 and 39 years old answer the same.
Also read: Jan Bøhler creates a furor in the Labor Party after the break
Younger considers Sp
However, there are several young people who are considering voting for the Center Party. 11 percent of those under the age of 30 respond that they are unlikely to do so. Of that age group, five percent also say their vote is highly likely to be for Bøhler.
Here, too, Bøhler and the Center Party are the strongest in East Oslo. A total of 16 percent of Bøhler’s hometown respond that they will consider or consider voting for the party. But the Center Party is also strong in central Oslo, where 14 percent consider voting for the Center Party, while the figures for Oslo West are 11 percent.
If you look at party affiliation, 16 percent of Labor Party voters in Oslo say they are highly or unlikely to vote for Bøhler’s new party.
However, from the voters of the FRP, KrF or the Green Party, there is little support to win, where no one says that their vote is very likely to go to the Center Party. But two percent of the MDGs say they are less likely to vote for the party.
Of Liberal Party voters, 12 percent consider voting for the Center Party, while seven percent of Conservative Party voters consider doing the same.
Here’s Nettavisen and Klassekampen’s Oslo poll:
Controversy over electoral list
The Oslo Labor Party will hold its nomination meeting on December 1 and present its final proposal for a list of parliamentary elections next week.
After the first list proposal was presented, there has been a dispute over which seats different politicians should have. Storting representative Espen Barth Eide reacted when he was kicked out of safety by placing fifth on the list. Since then, Oslo County Leader Frode Jacobsen has said he can trade his third place with Barth Eide.
Any other place on the Labor Party’s parliamentary election list will be a woman. As number two, the nominating committee has nominated Zaineb Al-Samarai from Oslo Ap’s most powerful home team, Oslo Arbeidersamfunn, and fourth, LO top Trine Lise Sundnes. A minority wants Deputy Mayor Kamzy Gunaratnam in that seat.
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