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Historically, debates on American television have had very little effect on the outcome of elections.
Eight hours of live TV. That’s what NRK offered the night before Wednesday; before, during and after the first televised debate of the US presidential election campaign.
This is a broadcast duration that we would otherwise like to associate with great national tragedies, and in many ways this debate turned into a national tragedy as well. For the United States and for Americans.
Read: American Expert: – Don’t think Trump got many new voters
“Shameful”, “unworthy” and “scary” are words used in hindsight and there is widespread agreement, even among Republicans, that Trump was the worst.
Now, this is nothing new, and there is little indication that debates like this affect voters to a great extent. And if they do, they reinforce current trends rather than reverse them.
The opposite is often claimed, and it must be one of the reasons why NRK spent so much airtime on this debate. Because it can’t just be about entertainment, right?
Now there are exceptions, which are often referred to, but they are just that; exception. Historically, debates like this have had very little effect on the outcome of elections.
The most important exception is the first televised debate, the one between Kennedy and Nixon in 1960.
Nixon was tired, unshaven, and posed in a suit that blended into the background. Kennedy was young, present, and eloquent.
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Those who heard the debate on the radio thought Nixon had won, those who saw it on television gave Kennedy the victory.
A month and a half later, Kennedy won the presidential election with 0.17 percent more votes than Nixon.
The second debate that is often referenced is the Reagan-Carter debate in 1980. Not least because of Reagan’s brilliant remarks, who with wit and humor removed the sting from the claim that he was too old.
Bill Clinton’s efforts in 1992 also stand out. The debate came after allegations that Clinton had been unfaithful to Hillary, an accusation that could have lowered her candidacy forever.
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Clinton’s seemingly honest response in the debate took the sting out of the accusation (which he later had to admit was true), and Clinton won the election.
These “victors” have one thing in common; they were challengers of a sitting president / vice president. Presidents in office also have a weary tendency to fare worse in television debates.
Like when Barack Obama met Mitt Romney in 2012, and Romney washed the ground even with as eminent rhetoric as Obama.
Viewers and pundits alike thought Romney was about to win by knockout – he generated panic within the Obama campaign, while Republicans almost began celebrating the election victory right there.
Read: The television moment that everyone talks about: – You can shut up, man!
Yet Obama won the election so sovereignly that Republicans were forced to set up their own “accident commission” to find out what went wrong.
Not surprisingly, incumbent presidents lose debates like this; They have four years of political decisions to defend and easily end up on the defensive in the face of a candidate who can fully focus on all the good he is going to do.
Maybe that’s what made Trump try so hard this time; he wanted to avoid having to defend himself exclusively. But he exaggerated the role, appearing rude, uncontrolled and unstable.
Whereas Biden, while occasionally allowing himself to be drawn into Trump’s vociferous competition, through his performance removed the sting of the claim that he is senile and unfit to govern.
Like Reagan (too old) and Clinton (unfaithful) they took the sting out of the charges against them.
My American friend Dave and I agree on one thing; Donald Trump is frankly nasty. But Dave still votes for Trump because he likes his policies.
I came to think of Dave when CNN, after the debate, interviewed a woman who voted for Trump in 2016: – I really like what he says, but I don’t think I can vote for a person who behaves like this.
Read: Drama Before Tv Debate: – Wants Independent Inspection
If this debate has any effect, it probably is; The desire of women to vote for Trump is even less.
Contrary to the beliefs of many people, there were actually more white women who voted for Trump than Clinton in 2016. Among women with no higher education, she had up to 23 percent more support.
Today’s polls show a consistent race between Trump and Biden in this group. A catastrophic landslide in support of Trump, and this debate did little to rectify it. On the contrary.
Now there are two television debates left, so Biden still has time to escape. But even that will have little influence on the outcome of the elections.
Many have already voted in advance and only approx. Five percent of voters say it has not been decided yet. The corresponding figure in 2016 was 15 percent.
The vast majority of them ended up voting for Trump, one of the reasons so many polls failed.
This election long ago ended as a Trump poll.
Then character and conduct become as important as politics, and there are many signs that the majority of Americans have begun to view Trump as a national tragedy.
Both on and off the stage of the debate.
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