Do you think Trump will “flirt with the idea” of running for reelection? – VG

– I think he will talk about flirting with the idea for as long as possible, both to stay relevant and to keep control of the Republican Party. But I think he will have a hard time running for president again.

This is what political scientist and editor of the Amerikanskpolitikk.no website, Are Tågvold Flaten, tells VG. He adds:

– It will make it incredibly difficult for other potential candidates if you are successful with such a strategy.

Because if Donald Trump gets all the attention in the next few years, but in the end still does not try to become president of the United States again, it will mean that he will lose attention for the candidate that the Republicans will eventually face a president who is already in office. . Joe Biden.

– And time will pass very quickly towards that choice, says Tågvold Flaten.

– Fix your position

This weekend, the table is set for the annual CPAC Conservative Conference in Orlando, Florida. There, Donald Trump will give the closing speech on Sunday. It will be his first public appearance since leaving the White House just over a month ago.

The Axios news website says they have sources close to the former president who say their goal is to show that he still has control over the Republican Party. And while he is not expected to say outright that he will run in 2024, he is expected to want to leave the impression that he is currently their “assumed” presidential candidate in 2024.

Are Tågvold Flaten explains that in recent years the CPAC has gone from being a conference where various elements of the party were invited to participate, and who could show themselves as potential presidential candidates, to becoming almost a cheerleader for Trump.

– Consolidate your position in the party.

The American expert is supported by Aubrey Jewett, professor of political science at the University of Central Florida. To the Orlando Sentinel, he tells the following about the conference program:

– Shows the enormous influence of Trump, even though he lost.

No real challengers

Sen. Mitt Romney, one of the few Republicans who voted to convict Trump in the recent court case, also believes that Trump remains the party’s leading figure.

“I don’t know if he will run in 2024, but if he does, I’m pretty sure he will win the party’s nomination,” he said Tuesday, according to the New York Times.

Tågvold Flaten also believes that there is no question who is the most popular figure within the Republican Party to date. So far, he doesn’t see any real challengers.

– But what is clear is that until the 2022 midterm elections and the 2024 presidential elections, there will be a positioning battle internally where Trump is a factor that everyone must take into account. It’s a dividing line, but choose to commit or not, says the American expert.

He thinks one of the most interesting things this weekend will be to see what Trump says about the kinds of candidates he will support before next year’s midterm elections. Will he support only the toughest Trump loyalists, or will he also be able to help more moderate candidates in districts where a Republican is not a given?

– If it really helps them to regain the majority in Congress, that’s what they should expect, says Tågvold Flaten, and think about the latter of the two variants.

For Democrats, the dream is the opposite. That Trump is pushing extreme candidates in moderate districts. They can then remind voters that this is still Trump’s party and that attempts to distance themselves from him are in vain.

– It probably won’t be the case that Republicans only get the best of Trump. They also get a stake in the purchase, which means they are weakened. We have seen that it is not as effective in getting others elected, says the editor of danskanskpolitikk.no.

Fear of becoming a permanent minority party

One of those who may face opposition from Donald Trump is Adam Kinzinger, a Republican from Illinois and a member of the House of Representatives. He advocates a more moderate line than Trump and his court, and was one of the few colleagues from the president’s party to vote in the Supreme Court after the attack on Congress on January 6.

Kinzinger fears for the future of the party if there is no longer a place for people like him.

– If you think that Donald Trump is what in the long run will be the winning recipe, and not someone like me, who is conservative but does not offend people, does not attack people and says “you owe me everything” and does . Do not encourage rebellion “We will remain a minority party forever,” he told CNN.

Are Tågvold Flaten also believes that it is in the party’s interest to have room for more votes.

– We probably have a clue to that in Trump’s speech this weekend, where he’s rumored to outline the way forward.