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As of January 5, the Swedish Public Health Agency (FHM) had recorded a total of 8,985 crown-related deaths, according to NTB.
Actually, the total number was at least 10,220 at the end of this day. In the period between January 5 and January 21, FHM recorded 1,235 deaths for the period between the pandemic and January 5 inclusive.
This is shown in Dagbladet’s calculation, based on public FHM data.
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Crisis communication advisor Henrik Josephson at FHM confirms the figure in an email to Dagbladet.
Answer Dagbladet’s question in consultation with FHM epidemiologists.
– There is a delay in notification. The deaths have been reported directly into the SmiNet reporting system by the treating physician or by regional infection control units based on existing regional registries, Josephson writes.
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SmiNet is FHM’s registry of infectious disease cases for which the Swedish Communicable Disease Act requires a report, according to the FHM website.
Adjusts gradually
The FHM coordinates the Swedish Revenue Agency’s death registry with the SmiNet infection case list every Tuesday and Thursday, Josephson explains.
People who, according to the Swedish Tax Agency record, have died within 30 days of a covid-19 diagnosis are reported to infection control units, which then update SmiNet.
– All the steps in this process have different delivery times and contribute to the delay. Adjustments and quality controls are gradual.
During the Christmas, New Year and the “thirteenth weekend” – Holy Trinity Day, January 6 – the reporting of deaths was more affected than usual, he explains.
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– Generally, we expect 90 percent of deaths to be reported within two weeks, but at Christmas the delay was more than three weeks. Most of the deaths that were reported during the first weeks of the year occurred in December, he concludes.
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On Thursday, department head Karin Tegmark Wisell at the Swedish Public Health Agency addressed the delay during a press conference.
– We see that the death reports have a greater delay than the intensive care reports. In the last three weeks, unfortunately, there will probably be more cases, he says.
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Public health adviser Iréne Nilsson Carlsson from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare also shed light on some background to the delay.
– We have long delays in the statistics. Our data is based on the certificates that doctors inform us. You have three weeks to do that. Therefore, the last weeks are uncertain and, in all likelihood, new deaths will be reported.
The last week that is pretty safe is week 53, but there can also be post-registration deaths, Carlsson said.
– I never talked about releasing the infection.
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A report from the Public Health Authority released on January 15 also explains possible reasons for the delay in notification, and why it could potentially be too large at that time.
The change in personnel in the agencies that are responsible for testing samples and reporting positive results during the Christmas and New Years seasons is one of several possible factors that stand out.
– Overall, this means fewer cases are identified and the backlog of data reports increases. Reporting to multiple registries is also expected to be impaired, further increasing the backlog in death and intensive care unit statistics, the report notes.
– Therefore, a decrease in the number of cases compared to the weeks before Christmas is not necessarily due to a change in the spread of the infection, and it may take until the second half of January for an evaluation of the epidemiological situation is safe.
