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The way we live our lives can largely return to normal in a year. But then everything has to go well when it comes to the coronary vaccine.
– I think the way we live our lives will become quite normal when we have vaccinated a large proportion of the population. And we will be able to do it in a year, or a little longer, says Ministerial Advisor Bjørn-Inge Larsen from the NTB Ministry of Health and Care Services.
At least 180 different vaccines are currently in development. Eight of them have reached phase three of the tests, which is the last before they are approved.
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If the more positive estimates come true, the first doses of vaccine will be delivered to Norway early next year. But from there there is still a way to go before we can completely drop our shoulders.
– We will not be able to make much relief in the measurements the day we receive the first doses of vaccine. It will probably be late in the vaccination, when many have been vaccinated, says Larsen.
In any case, the measures will depend on the situation of the infection, which can also be affected by other factors.
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– But when many are vaccinated, the infection will subside on its own.
Millions of doses
The main reason it will take time to vaccinate many is that deliveries will be small at first.
– The EU, for example, has ordered up to 400 million doses of the vaccine from the manufacturer AstraZeneca (which is in phase three). It will come in small volumes at first, as capacity develops. In the first month, Europe can receive ten million doses, but then the full delivery is expected to be delivered in six months, says the Minister.
It is not certain that it is this vaccine that will eventually be used, and there are a number of factors that can delay work.
Protection in society
But if several of the companies working with vaccines are successful, Larsen believes it will take six to 12 months to vaccinate a large enough proportion of the population.
“More than 50 percent, maybe 60 or 70 percent of the population must have been vaccinated or had the disease before the infection just goes away on its own,” he says.
If the most optimistic estimates come true, this can be achieved during the fall of 2021.
– So it doesn’t matter if someone goes on vacation somewhere and comes home with an infection and exposes the people around them. Because then there will be protection in society, says Larsen.
– Big question
On Tuesday, the authorities held a seminar on the work of vaccines at the international and national level.
– We have based an estimate on vaccinating 75 percent of people in the risk group and 50 percent of the population otherwise. This means that two thirds of the adult population will initially be vaccinated, explained Health Minister Bent Høie (H).
Geir Bukholm, director of infection control at FHI, tells NTB that people in risk groups and those working in socially critical occupations will only get priority when vaccines start arriving.
– We have good routines to send many vaccines in a short time, but I think that part of what will limit the shipment will be the number of doses of vaccines that we enter the country, he says.
Ice storage
Several covid-19 vaccines will likely be available at the same time as they will be distributed to municipalities. And some of them may be more difficult to handle.
– There are candidate vaccines that may require very special shipping and storage, one of them requires, for example, storage at minus 70 degrees, explains the director of infection control.
It also emphasizes that the speed of vaccination depends on the deliveries.
– We probably think that if we meet the Norwegian need for vaccines, we should be able to implement this during 2021.
(© NTB)
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