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Torgrim Log, professor of security at the University College of Western Norway, is concerned about the situation of the crown in Norway.
Not because the Norwegian authorities have shown a lack of will and ability to act and take strict measures, because the professor is satisfied with the way in which Norway has learned of the news that a wild infection has occurred, in the form of the spread of the variant of the British coronavirus. detected in Norway.
These are the measurements
Log is concerned that the general downward trend in infection in Norway leads to pressure on authorities to ease measures.
This before you have a sufficient overview and control of the outbreak of the virus variant that was first alerted at Nordre Follo.
In the image at the top of this case, you have made a figure that explains the terrifying situation the country is in now.
Growing problem
– This is a simple model showing that despite the general decline in infection rates, we may have a growing problem in the future as a result of the UK mutated coronavirus, Torgrim Log tells Dagbladet and emphasizes:
– Therefore, it is very important that the government receives support in strict measures. Otherwise, this can happen as it is now in many other European countries, says the professor at University College in western Norway.
The figure that Log has produced shows a scenario of terror that may explain why the Norwegian authorities have implemented very intrusive corona measures in much of the country, despite a significant decrease in infection rates.
In the graph, the reproduction number R, that is, how many corona diseases are transmitted more, is set at 0.88, a slightly decreasing infection pressure, similar to the infection pressure that Oslo experiences today.
WILL AVOID INFECTION: Once again, strict measures have been put in place in Norway to control the crown situation. Photo: Heiko Junge / NTB
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The problem is that the British virus variant is at least 50 percent more contagious, and based on that, the R of 0.88 for the common coronavirus will be at least 1.32 for the virus variant.
So the curve may rise sharply, despite the fact that the overall infection pressure is low, if Norway fails to control the spread of the virus mutation.
The Norwegian authorities have cited Ireland as an example of what could happen if we let it go too fast now.
In the London area, the British virus variant now accounts for 97 per cent of the spread of the infection, in the country still ravaged by the corona pandemic.
Steep decline
We have to go back to week 19-25. October to find infection rates as low in Norway as last week shows a review of the MSIS and FHI figures by Aftenposten.
The decrease in infection also occurs in Oslo, but in the capital the infection decreases somewhat less than in the rest of the country.
Infection rates fell dramatically even before Prime Minister Erna Solberg introduced tough new national measures this weekend and shut down much of eastern Norway.
– If contagion rates continue to fall, we believe that it will not be necessary with measures as strict as the ones we have this week. The additional measures that were introduced this weekend are first and foremost to get a better overview, says FHI Director Camilla Stoltenberg.
At the same time, the National Institute of Public Health (FHI) has so far registered 135 cases of the mutated virus in Norway, FHI writes on its website.
The majority of cases have been detected in Viken, where Nordre Follo is located.
The cases have been tested after previously conducted corona test analysis, that is, cases of infection have already been recorded.
Therefore, it is not certain that the number provides a correct picture of the spread of the mutated virus today.
Nakstad warns
The Norwegian Health Directorate shares Professor Logs’ fear of what could happen if we do not spread the spread of the British variant of the virus, which is at least 50 but can be up to 70 percent more contagious at an early stage.
– The main challenge associated with the UK mutated virus is that it is more contagious and therefore provides a higher reproduction rate R than virus strains we have had in Norway so far, says the Deputy Director for Health Espen Rostrup Nakstad to Dagbladet.
He emphasizes that although the incidence will be initially low among those who test positive, the proportion of mutated viruses will gradually grow and eventually become the dominant virus in Norway.
– Then ordinary infection control measures will no longer prevent the exponential growth of the infection and it will start to grow strongly, warns Nakstad and elaborates:
– The risk associated with this is the reason why we want to limit the spread of mutated viruses as much as possible and we will have to have stricter routines to detect such mutations and gain even faster control of infection outbreaks in municipalities.
