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Statistics on new infections do not tell the whole truth.
Every day there are new figures on how many people have been reported infected with covid-19 in what is called MSIS.
Thursday’s figures showed 163 new people signed up in the past 24 hours, which is the highest since April 3.
Also read: 163 new corona infections recorded last day, the highest since April
Last time there were similarly high infection rates, schools were closed and travel to the cabin was prohibited.
However, both Health Minister Bent Høie and Health Director Bjørn Guldvog were quite relaxed when they held a press conference on Wednesday afternoon. Høie thought we had taken a step back from the tipping point they experienced a few weeks ago.
Also read: NIPH has changed its mind: this is how they explain the huge change in the R number
What the numbers don’t say
The reason is that the current infection rates cannot be compared to what we had earlier this year.
In April, it was almost impossible to get tested unless there were good reasons for it. There was also less infection tracking to detect close contacts.
Therefore, many of those who were infected in April never received confirmation of covid-19.
Today, the goal is to detect almost all cases, and most people can get tested the same day if they want. This captures many more cases, which were previously overlooked.
Today, about as many tests are done in a day as there were in a week in April.
Before: 1 of 20. Now: 1 of 120
On April 3, according to figures from the National Institute of Public Health, 3,330 corona tests were performed in Norway, of which 177 were positive.
This means that about 1 in 20 tests were positive.
On Monday of this week, 17,523 tests were carried out, of which 143 were positive.
This means that about 1 in 120 tests were positive.
This causes FHI to believe that the R number is still well below 1, which means that the pandemic is subsiding.
FHI: – We detected several cases with a mild course
In its latest weekly report, the National Institute of Public Health analyzes the issue:
– The general follow-up shows a stable trend in infection rates during the last two weeks and still a low spread of covid-19 in the population. The infection occurs mainly in connection with local outbreaks, but also among infected people abroad, mainly in countries covered by the quarantine obligation, writes FHI.
Also read: NIPH: These are the places where people are infected now
– Despite outbreaks and local clusters, we do not see an increase in hospital admissions, intensive care admissions or deaths associated with covid-19. One explanation is that the infection in recent weeks has occurred primarily in younger people at low risk of a severe course. Another explanation may be that extensive testing and infection monitoring means that we detect multiple cases with a mild course.
I don’t think 52,000 infected have ever been detected
The low testability had consequences. According to the National Institute of Public Health’s own calculations on Monday this week, around 63,000 people have been infected by the coronavirus in Norway and 40,200 have developed symptoms.
In fact, only 17 percent of those FHI believes to have been infected in Norway have been diagnosed with the infection.
At that time, there were 10,542 who had actually been diagnosed with the infection. This means that the National Institute of Public Health believes that up to 52,000 people in Norway have never been diagnosed with the infection.
FHI also believes that it has the best infection control in the capital: 1 in 4 infected believe it has been detected in Oslo, while 1 in 20 has been detected in Rogaland.
Also read: Nature: – For every 1,000 people infected with corona under the age of 50, almost no one will die
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