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The death rate in Norway so far is around 0.34 percent.
How deadly is the corona virus really?
This is a question that researchers have been trying to answer since Wuhan was attacked earlier in the year.
The WHO came out early and believed that the death rate was closer to 6 percent, meaning that 6 out of 100 infected people will die. Since then, this figure has degraded considerably as more information has been obtained.
Several studies have varied in recent months, but the researchers’ estimates are 0.5 to 1 percent “fatality,” as it is called in technical parlance.
Also read: How lethal is covid-19? New research with surprising results
FHI believes in even lower numbers
The National Institute of Public Health operates with figures even lower than that:
Since the beginning of the pandemic, FHI has said that mortality is assumed to be “well below 1 percent”, and in their latest risk report, they write the following:
“The general lethality that we believe is around 0.4 – 0.6% of the infected, but highly dependent on age. If intensive care units are overloaded, the fatality can worsen. To date, almost 90% of deaths have occurred in the age group over 70 years. “
On the other hand, there are strong indications that mortality in Norway has so far been lower than the estimates with which FHI operates.
Death rates in Norway are likely to be even lower
The mortality of the virus is calculated based on how many of those infected lose their lives.
The latest official figures from FHI show that 270 people have lost their lives as a result of the virus.
There are 13,406 people who received on Friday tried infection in Norway, but this figure cannot be used to calculate mortality. The reason is that many more people have been infected than those who tested positive. Among other things, it was almost impossible to get tested in the period when Norway had the most infections and many had no symptoms.
It is not known exactly how many have been infected in Norway, but the National Institute of Public Health’s own computer models estimate that the number of infected in Norway so far has been 80,600 people, with a margin of error of around 11,000 upwards o down.
FHI computer models estimate that the number of infected people in Norway has ranged from 69,599 to 92,279 people, with an average value of 80,600 people.
Photo: (FHI)
These figures are subject to great uncertainty, but are in good agreement with the antibody tests that the Norwegian Institute of Public Health continuously performs:
‘At week 37, antibodies to sars-CoV-2 were detected in 1.7% among randomized participants in Norwegian cohort studies. The proportion that tests positive can vary from week to week as an expression of random variation in the sample being tested. Since week 18, almost 7,000 people have been tested and antibodies have been detected in 1.3% of them, ”wrote the informed FHI in its weekly report this Wednesday of this week.
0.34 percent mortality
1.3-1.7 percent of the population, corresponds to 70,000-91,400 people, which is the same as the computer models show.
With 270 deaths and 80,600 people infected, this means that 0.34 percent of those infected in Norway have lost their lives.
If you include the margin of error in the infection figures, it is 0.29 to 0.39 percent mortality, both below FHI’s most optimistic estimates.
FHI explains a lot with age
FHI Chief Physician Preben Aavitsland says the way the crown has been spread in Norway is a big part of the explanation:
– It is the age distribution of the infected that has the most to say about the mortality observed in a country. This is because the virus is much more dangerous among people over the age of 70. Generally speaking, we think the risk of death is 1% in the 70-79 age group and 10% in those 80 and older, Aavitsland writes in an email.
Also read: Nature: – For every 1,000 people infected with corona under the age of 50, almost no one will die
Preben Aavitsland, chief physician at the National Institute of Public Health.
Photo: Tor Erik Schrøder (NTB)
– Other factors that influence this are the fragility of those who are infected and the quality of treatment, he points out.
Statistics show that young people are clearly overrepresented among those infected in recent months:
The spread of infection has been clearly higher in younger age groups since testing capacity increased. In particular, the proportion in the 20 to 39 age group has been overrepresented, while very few older people have tested positive.
– It is not easy to measure mortality, because the number of infected (the denominator of the fraction) is uncertain. For Norway, our model calculations show that the number so far may be 80,000, but this is highly uncertain. In that case, the risk of death is 0.34 percent.
– If the epidemic began to affect the elderly and residents of nursing homes again, the number of deaths would increase, and then the number could increase by 0.34 percent, he says.
Also read: Tegnell: – It goes slow, but surely in the wrong direction
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