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For an outdoor area to be called “red”, there must be more than 20 cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants.
Now, more Norwegian counties are starting to approach this border. This is stated by FHI in its latest “Corona National Report”, which models the future development of infections in Norway.
The report explaining the development shows that:
- All counties in Norway have a more than 50 percent chance of contracting more than 20 new cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants during the next two weeks (as of September 21).
- The probability is higher in Agder, Viken, Rogaland, Oslo and Vestfold and Telemark.
The latest FHI weekly report showed that Oslo, Viken and Vestland were above the “red” limit in weeks 37-38.
The following table shows how FHI assesses the probability that different counties will contract 20 cases of infection per 100,000 residents during the current two-year period:
Agder: 0.76
Interior: 0.71
More og Romsdal: 0.65
Nordland: 0.64
Oslo: 0.76
Rogaland: 0.79
Troms and Finnmark: 0.61
Trøndelag: 0.68
Vestfold and Telemark: 0.74
Vestland: 0.67
Bay: 0.76
Fluctuations in R number
The new report also features new calculations of how the R number has developed in recent months. FHI estimates that it fell below 1 when the strict measures were introduced in mid-March. Thereafter, it held steady at around 0.5 until the end of April, before rising to 1 in early May. In the following period, it fluctuated around number 1 for one period, writes FHI.
The calculations in the latest report, which has been applied since September 1, show that the R number is now 1.22.
FHI uses several models to assess the number, which is largely affected by the number of hospital admissions related to the crown.
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Top at the turn of the year
In the new report, FHI also estimates that the peak of infection will be reached by the end of the year if the infection situation remains as it is today.
In addition, the probability that more than 500 patients will need respiratory treatment at the peak of infection is estimated to be 40 percent. (And 30 percent for more than 1,000). This also presupposes that the infection situation remains as it is today.
– These predictions are much more serious than before, states the report.
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Movements
FHI relies, among other things, on Telenor’s teledata, which shows how Norwegians move inland, when they make predictions about what the infection will look like in the future.
The latest report shows that movements of Norwegians between municipalities are stable and “remain at the same level as before the summer”.
– There are no signs of a reduction in the level of movement as a result of the increased use of the home office and remote work, writes FHI.
