Center Party, Labor Party | Divide on the red-green side:

On Wednesday, shocking news came that the Center Party is on par with the Labor Party in Sentio’s Nettavisen October poll.

With such a result, it is no longer obvious that Labor leader Jonas Gahr Støre will become prime minister of the red-green parties if they win the parliamentary elections next year.

But the truth is that there is a disagreement between the parties about who will rule the country together.

– Of course it’s a confusing situation. Voters don’t know which government they will get if they vote for one of the red-green parties, election researcher Johannes Bergh from the Department of Social Research tells Nettavisen.

See the measurement results below.

Also read: New Impact Measurement: Thriller about the Prime Minister’s Job

– Do not jump

Because while the Center Party is very clear that it only wants a government with the Labor Party, the Labor Party will have a government with both the SV and the Center Party. At the same time, SV believes that the Green Party (ODM) and the Red Party should also be included.

– It doesn’t jump, and not everyone can get away with it, of course. The outcome of the elections will be decisive for the type of government that is achieved in practice, says Bergh.

He thinks it is difficult to say now how it will end if the reddish greens win.

– If the Labor Party, the Socialist People’s Party and the Center Party get the majority, then it is quite natural that all three parties will manage to find a solution as they have done before. But it immediately becomes more complicated if they become dependent on Red or MDG, because the distance is greater. Especially between the Center Party and MDG and Rødt, says the election researcher.

Gunnar Stavrum: Slagsvold Vedum may become prime minister

Greater distance to the SW

– So why will the Center Party reject SV this time?

– In the red-green government, there was a certain distance there, and perhaps it was also a little bigger during the period when the red-greens were in the government. For the Center Party, a collaboration with the Labor Party can mean that they have a bigger impact on their politics, and then they can collaborate a bit towards the center, towards KrF and the Liberal Party, says Bergh.

In that case, it will mean a minority government with the Labor Party and the Center Party, which must seek a majority in the Storting on a case-by-case basis.

However, the fact that it is unclear what voters will get before the election is nothing new.

– We have experienced it many times before in Norwegian politics. Especially on the bourgeois side, it has been a bit confusing who will rule together, he says.

– The Prime Minister gets the highest

The election researcher also says that it is not inconceivable that Vedum could end up as prime minister, if the Center Party outnumbered the Labor Party.

– This is the tradition, that the largest party is asked to form a government, and that it is natural to think that the largest party will win the prime minister. But this has not always been the case, as in the second government of Kjell Magne Bondevik. So one can imagine that other considerations also come into play, such as considering SV, MDG and Rødt, he says.

At the same time, the Center Party will end up in a very favorable negotiating position, he believes:

– It is clear that the Center Party will be able to enter into a very favorable negotiating situation with the Labor Party. If they resign as prime minister, they may be able to get it back politically on their favorite topics.

This week, Trygve Slagsvold Vedum is a guest on the Stavrum & Eikeland podcast. Listen to it here:

– Good Vedum strategy

But Vedum himself only discusses questions about a possible prime ministerial post.

– We really take things a little slow and stay focused on our problems all the time. We can do something for the people, he told Nettavisen on Wednesday, and quickly thought about talking about the party’s problems.

– I think political journalists are more concerned about the game than people, he added.

– Is this a good Vedum strategy?

– Yes, I think it is a good strategy, because talking a lot about political positions and games is probably not something that attracts more voters. Being a little sober I think it can be wise. The second is that it is prudent to avoid conflict with the Labor Party, says Bergh.

He still believes that it will get worse and worse not to answer such questions.

– It is clear that that question will intrude if you continue with many good polls and the Center Party becomes bigger than the Labor Party. It will be increasingly difficult not to answer, he thinks.

– But does Vedum also mean that he supports Støre as prime minister?

– I’m not sure why they choose to say something else now. It is an unclear communication. They can look at the situation a little bit in the measurements, Bergh says.

– Bøhler has had an effect

The cannon poll for the Center Party of 19.8 percent was retaken two weeks after Labor Party profile Jan Bøhler announced his transfer to the Center Party. Bergh also believes this has had an effect.

– The Center Party has been in the wind for a long time and has taken voters from the Labor Party. They have benefited from riots across the country against the government and central authorities, so they are already floating on a wave. Also, things have happened lately that have paid special attention to the Center Party, especially with the transition to Jan Bøhler, he says, noting:

– You have given positive attention to the Center Party and it is an issue that the Labor Party has failed a bit. Bøhler is probably a politician who is reasonably popular, and of whom many have a positive opinion, so the somewhat harsh criticism of the Labor Party may well have hit them a bit.

Also read: Jan Bøhler is running for the Center Party elections; he is called a traitor

– Crisis for the Labor Party

In the October poll, the Labor Party falls back one percentage point from September and ends with a result of 20.8 percent.

– The Labor Party is in a crisis that has lasted a long time to varying degrees. The main problem is that they have lost many of their main voters to the Center Party. It is a critical situation for the Labor Party that they have not found any solution or any way to avoid, says Bergh.

For Nettavisen on Wednesday, Labor Party Secretary Kjersti Stenseng also admitted that they have a big job ahead of them.

– Another red-green majority poll, but the Labor Party has a big job ahead of it. The people want a new direction for the country, and if we want to secure a change of government, then a stronger Labor Party is needed, Stenseng told Nettavisen.

Lysbakken: – No Sp and SV

SV leader Audun Lysbakken also stated that they do not want a government made up of only the Labor Party and the Center Party.

– Our goal is a red-green government, and a strong electoral result for SV can guarantee that the country gets that government. If we want to fight the growing inequality in power and wealth and solve the climate crisis, we need a left-wing government, not a center-right project with only the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party, Lysbakken told Nettavisen on Wednesday.

He stressed that they were ready to cooperate with both the Labor Party, the Center Party, the MDGs and the Red Party.

When asked if he will support Støre anyway, or if he can be open to Vedum as prime minister, the SV leader replied:

– It’s not a necessary discussion for us now. On average, the Labor Party is by far the largest party on our side.

Here is the result of the October survey:

Støre: – They must make the decision

In the poll, however, the three former government partners on the red-green side do not depend on the Red or Green Party (ODM) for a majority.

Støre has also made it clear in the past that he does not want the two parties to be in government, despite the fact that in several elections last year he has relied on the parties to win a majority in the Storting.

– I do not foresee a government collaboration with MDG or Rødt. Therefore, the differences in many contexts are too great. So they must make the decision, whether they want to support a government with the Conservatives and the Liberal Party or if they see other possibilities, Støre told Nettavisen in June.

Read also: The leader of the Labor Party speaks: This will be Norway with Jonas Gahr Støre

– One of the most talented leaders

Storting representative Sandra Borch (Sp) believes that the center-right poll shows that people in Norway now want a different government.

– It is clear that people want a different direction to the centralization line of the conservative government, Borch tells Nettavisen.

When asked if Vedum should run for prime minister if Sp outsizes the Labor Party, she is, however, as reserved as her party leader:

– For Sp, the games on positions are not the important thing, it is clear politics and impact. But Trygve is one of the most talented leaders I know and have worked with, he says.

– Do you support Støre as a candidate for prime minister of the red-green parties?

– I’m not interested in positions and the game. I will work for Northern Norway, towards centralization and better defense. Then it is the voters who decide who will govern, Borch responds.