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On Wednesday, the National Institute of Public Health stated in its new weekly report that the R number in Norway has risen to 1.26. Health director Bjørn Guldvog calls the R number a siding because little is needed for the number to explode.
The Health Director begins by emphasizing that he is concerned about developments in Oslo. In the last week, the municipality has registered up to 68 new cases of contagion in the course of a day, and has introduced new measures to prevent the development.
– But I want to emphasize that it is a side way to put too much emphasis on the R number at the moment, says Guldvog and continues:
– The reason for this is that when we basically have a very low spread of infection, there will be more outbreaks before the R number explodes. Therefore, the R number is very, very influential in the current infection situation. However, the R number is more stable if there is a more persistently high spread of infection in the population.
– Therefore, we will not put as much emphasis on the number R, although we naturally also notice when the number exceeds one. Because we don’t like it to linger over time.
The R number
The R number shows how many people an average Covid-19 patient infects. Therefore, it is very important to be able to keep the number below 1. If you do not take action, the R number for coronavirus is believed to be around 3.
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health uses the R number in its mathematical models to see how the epidemic may develop in the future. These models are based on many assumptions and have various sources of uncertainty.
– It is important to remember that the estimate is associated with uncertainty, but reflects the infection situation in the last 14 days, says the director of the department Line Vold at the National Institute of Public Health to Dagbladet.
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Measurements
He also notes that outbreaks in large municipalities have a large impact on the R number, which is calculated on the basis of the number of hospital admissions and mobility data, among other things.
– But it is clear that the R number says something about how the infection is spreading now, and we use it to say something about how the situation will be in the future. But if we implement measures that stop further spread of the infection, then the R number will go down.
The NIPH report shows that the R number increased from 0.88 to 1.26 in week 38. The report also shows that 711 new cases of infection were recorded in Norway during the week, which is on par with the two previous weeks.
– It shows that we have an ongoing outbreak in Oslo that worries us all. We have had large outbreaks in large municipalities like Bergen, which have this type of effect on the R number. It is essential that the measures that are implemented work to avoid a national increase in the spread of the infection, because it means that we must introduce more national measures. strict, Health Minister Bent Høie tells Dagbladet.
– Very restless
However, the Minister of Health rejects that the strategy should be changed due to the increase in the R number. Therefore, the Norwegian health authorities will continue to follow their strategy of cracking down on local outbreaks of corona infection, as we have seen above in Hamar, Moss and Sarpsborg.
The strategy is also followed in Oslo, where a ban on more than ten participants in private meetings, a broad recommendation on bandages in the population and prices in restaurants has been introduced.
– I am very concerned about the situation in Oslo. The government has produced a circular with recommended measures. The City Council has introduced additional measures and at the same time announced stricter measures if the spread of the infection is not stopped. If they introduce stricter measures, they will have the full support of the government, says Health Minister Høie.
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Regional infection
FHI’s Line Vold tells Dagbladet that they are concerned about the development in Oslo, especially as an increasing number of cases of infection have been recorded over time. The National Institute of Public Health has also announced that it will intervene if the spread of the infection spreads from a local to a regional area.
– If the outbreaks involve multiple municipalities, then the NIPH has a role in which we must coordinate infection detection and outbreak investigation across municipal boundaries. This function is also enshrined in the Infection Control Act. We assist municipalities all the time with outbreak investigations and we have a good dialogue when we collaborate on these things, says Vold.
– Does the spread of infection in Oslo have the potential to be regional in scope?
– It remains to be seen how development will continue.
