[ad_1]
With 16 days to go in the election campaign, Joe Biden still opposes an increasingly active president. The national advantage is now 8.2 percentage points, against 7.8 points in the previous average of TV 2.
It is the number cruncher Terje Sørensen who calculates the TV 2 weighted average based on the latest measurements from the US.
– Biden’s management is solid. His problem is that many of the voters do not vote for Biden, but against Trump. Therefore, it is vulnerable to any negative news in recent weeks, says Sørensen.
NUMBER CRUSHER: Terje Sørensen is TV 2’s number crusher. Photo: Katrine Sæverud
– Don’t forget that it was at this point four years ago that Trump began seriously to bridge the gap with Clinton.
– Next week will be exciting. If Biden leads by 8 points next week, he’s probably finished.
Like Thursday, Sørensen’s Biden model gives a slightly smaller edge than the more popular models in the US Why?
– Our model only contains measurements from the last six days, explains Terje. He’s skeptical of models that include older measurements so close to the choices.
The position of the voters
It is not necessarily the one who gets the most votes nationally who becomes president of the United States. The country’s indirect electoral system consists of gathering the largest number of voters and the first candidate of 270 winners. According to the TV 2 forecast, Biden continues to lead solidly, with 333 to 205 voters.
To win, Trump must oust Biden 65 more voters. You should do it in the softest lash states. In what we have called the “second line of defense,” Trump is in a position to take North Carolina from Biden. In that case, you will get 15 of the 65 voters you need.
In the “first line of defense,” the states where Trump won by the smallest margin in 2016, he is further ahead. But if we imagine that the incumbent president starts sourcing from behind the list, with Arizona, Florida and Wisconsin, he will get exactly 270 voters.
Something is happening in Michigan
Joe Biden has long led by a clear margin at Michigan. He’s still clearly ahead of Trump, but in recent days, polls have moved relatively sharply toward the president.
The political situation in the state is accused after the FBI revealed assassination plans against Democratic Governor Gretchen Withmer. As recently as Saturday night, Trump supporters yelled “lock her up” with a clear direction at Withmer, who has been accused of being too hard on her hand during the state shutdown this spring.
– At the same time, Joe Biden has taken a hard line against the Republican candidate for the state Senate, John James, calling him “a disaster,” explains Terje Sørensen.
– It is not certain that it was so wise.
Challenger James is right behind the Democratic nominee and Sørensen believes the numbers are spilling over to the presidential polls.
