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Biden must not only prepare to face an uncooperative Republican-led Senate. He also has to deal with a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, crowds of justices who can block laws, and an office full of Trump loyalists.
Democrats invested huge sums of money to win a majority in the Senate, with a particular focus on five states, which would give them 51 senators to 47 now. At Doug Jones’ place in Alabama, they knew they would lose.
But they only managed to win two of the five and are therefore likely to be left with only 48 senators.
There is little hope that there will be a two-seat Georgia Senate reelection in January, ensuring that Georgia will be the center of attention for a fierce and venous election campaign in the coming months.
Depending on McConnell
Without a Senate majority, a Biden administration will depend entirely on a partnership with Mitch McConnell, the powerful Republican Majority Leader in the Senate, who, while Barack Obama was president, made clear that his main goal was to oppose everything. what Obama proposed.
All bills must pass the Senate, as well as the House of Representatives, and the Senate has the power to approve or reject the appointment of ministers, department heads, and ambassadors, as well as federal judges, including judges of the Supreme Court.
Many dreams are shattered
This makes it very difficult for Democrats to overcome the important reforms they have promised voters, such as health care reform, climate reform, increased gun control, better LGBT rights, electoral reforms, police reforms, an immigration reform and a infrastructure package.
Even a comprehensive economic crisis plan can be difficult, despite the United States facing a deep economic and health crisis due to the corona pandemic that is now exploding when Trump does nothing to stop it.
Democrats have already been negotiating for months with the White House and reluctant Republicans over such a plan. But if the infection skyrockets and the US economy collapses, McConnell may still have to come to terms with.
More focused?
A Republican majority in the Senate will also force Biden to elect members of the government McConnell can accept.
It will force a more center-right government than the more radical forces of the Democratic Party want. Candidates like Stacey Abrams of Georgia and Elizabeth Warren can be excluded.
The idea of Susan Rice, the UN ambassador and Obama’s national security adviser, as secretary of state will likely also be scrapped after her fight with Congress and the defense of Hillary Clinton after the Benghazi attack on Libya.
Colleagues for decades
Whether the next two years will be as entrenched as in Obama’s last term may depend on the personal relationship between McConnell and Biden. The two have known each other well for decades as colleagues in the Senate.
Biden’s promises that he can work with Republicans and negotiate deals can be tested almost daily for years to come.
It will not be easier for the majority of the Democrats in the House of Representatives to decline. The authority of President Nancy Pelos has weakened, and the center-right Democrats will need less to overturn the proposals.
Purified civil service
Biden will also take over an office where Trump has removed many professional officials who disagreed with his agenda. Instead, he has installed Trump loyalists, often without regard for experience.
This includes the Norwegian Environmental Agency EPA, the previously respected US CDC infection control agency, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Rebuilding a competent and professional office doesn’t happen overnight, and McConnell can also sabotage here by blocking the appointment of top executives.
Presidential orders are a way out
The only way for Biden to get around the Senate could be to govern by presidential orders, something Obama was forced to do to a large extent, and something Trump also had to resort to after Republicans lost a majority in the House of Representatives. Representatives.
Examples of such orders are Obama’s DACA program, which prevented the deportation of hundreds of thousands of young immigrants, and Trump’s order to take money from the Pentagon to build a wall against Mexico.
But presidential orders are not laws. They expire after a few years and can also be blocked if a court decides they are unconstitutional.
Conservative judges
But such orders are also becoming more difficult for Biden as a result of Trump’s use in recent years to appoint a large number of federal judges in the United States who can block presidential laws and orders.
If such decisions are appealed higher, they could end up in the Supreme Court, where the Trump administration simply made sure to increase the conservative majority to six out of nine. And both federal judges and Supreme Court justices remain seated until they die or even decide to resign.
The fact that Democrats did not get a majority in the Senate also prevents Biden from doing anything with the Supreme Court, for example expanding the court and appointing more liberal justices.
Biden was hardly particularly enthusiastic about this proposal, but he did not reject it in the election campaign. Without a majority in the Senate, in any case it is out of the question, and his administration must live with the Supreme Court that McConnell was so eager to achieve.
