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– This seems to be a traditional option. Trump appears to be sticking with the southern states, and that this will be decided in the tip states in the Midwest, researcher Hilmar Mjelde of the Norce Norwegian Research Center in Bergen tells Dagbladet.
He believes that the result, shown early Wednesday morning, appears to be as expected.
– People must have ice in their stomach. This will take time. But it’s definitely not likely to be a landslide victory in the Biden election, says Mjelde.
The “red illusion” can create chaos
Regular options
Mjelde says that regular elections have been the typical scenario in the United States for the past 20 years, with the exception of 2008.
– The result of the elections is a flicker in motion. I’ve seen stoda changes in various states in the last few hours, he says.
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– voting votes
Biden (north%)
north votes
Trump (north%)
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At the moment, much of the excitement is related to Arizona, which can change color from red to blue. The state has voted Republicans in every presidential election since 1952, with the exception of 1996, when Bill Clinton scored a narrow victory.
If Biden wins Arizona, it will be due to dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the pandemic and that the state has become more ethnically diverse, Mjelde says.
Around 5:30 a.m., the Fox News television channel announced that Biden will win Arizona.
Here Biden has won
To the courts
Arizona is the only “sunbelt state” where Joe Biden still has a real chance of winning, according to American expert Sofie Høgestøl. But will Biden’s leadership hold up entirely?
– Now 75 percent are listed in Arizona. Lead by 9 percentage points. Much of this is early voting. How bright red are the 25 percent who vote on Election Day? That’s the big question, Høgestøl told NRK at 5 o’clock on Wednesday.
If Biden doesn’t win Arizona, it will all come down to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he emphasizes.
– And that is a problem because we know that Pennsylvania will not have a ready election result today. There they will count the early votes for another three days. So I think it goes against the lawyers and the lawsuits, says Høgestøl.
Hilmar Mjelde agrees:
– This has not been the night of partying the measures indicated for Biden. We have the drama we feared. Now you will be fine counting. This race can quickly end in court, Mjelde tells Dagbladet.
Here Trump has won
Nightmare scenario
If the experts’ analyzes were successful, the conditions are ripe for what in the days before the elections has been described as a nightmare scenario. It is about the president of the United States, Donald Trump, declaring himself the winner, even though not all the votes have been counted and the election has not been decided.
A record number of voters have voted early, which can lead to what the US media describes as a “red mirage,” a red illusion, or an air mirror.
– Trump can take the initiative on election night. Then Biden catches up with him when the votes come in the mail. We can have a president on election night and another president by the end of this week, American expert Hilmar Mjelde told Dagbladet last week.
However, it was Joe Biden who at 6.30 was the first to take the stage, talk to the people and affirm that the Democrats are on track to win the election.
– It is a message for everyone that now there will be a good countdown to the last vote, says Mjelde.
