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Tensions rise a few hours before the US presidential election is decided. For months, Democrats and Republicans have been waging a verbal dragons battle over who will lead the superpower for the next four years.
In recent weeks, the steep fronts have become even clearer, with several warning that the United States is now on the brink of collapse and at risk of civil war regardless of the election outcome.
What many are wondering now is whether Donald Trump will accept the election result if he loses. According to the latest opinion polls, Trump has reduced Biden’s lead, but it is primarily in the auspicious states that elections are decided.
– It will be a raw run to exclude postal votes
– Trump will likely lead in Pennsylvania on election night because mail-in votes won’t be counted until later in Pennsylvania. And I strongly suspect that he will declare himself the winner there. In Florida, mail-in votes are counted earlier, so in Florida there is a chance that we will meet the winner on Election Night. If Biden wins Florida, Trump can hardly claim that he won the election with particular credibility. If Trump wins Florida and leads Pennsylvania, it will be difficult to exclude postal votes.says Professor of Political Science in NTNU’s Department of Sociology and Political Science, Espen Moe.
He has a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and specializes in the rise and fall of great powers. Among other things, he has investigated the underlying dynamics of international political economy, structural economic change, and long-term economic growth and development.
– Fairly large measurement errors will be needed before Trump wins
– Who do you think will win the elections?
Espen Moe, professor of political science at NTNU. Photo: Geir Mogen / NTNU
– Will it be a fair and free election? Biden wins. The polls are much clearer than they were for Clinton four years ago, and at least the major polls have done their best to correct the mistakes they made four years ago. So it takes a lot of measurement errors before Trump wins. But there’s also no question that Republicans have been working harder to mobilize, and that they seem to have gotten closer in a couple of auspicious states, like Pennsylvania, over the past week. notes the NTNU professor.
– They will not accept the result of the elections
– What do you think will happen in the United States when the election results are clear, there will be riots, riots or civil war as many have warned, and the police and defense will intervene to restore law and order?
– Democrats will not politely and orderly accept the exclusion of votes by mail, as they did during the 2000 election, and they will not accept the election result in that way. If there is a common perception on the American left that elections have been stolen, there will be uprisings in the biggest cities. And Trump is not going to have to think about any re-election and he will take it seriously with reasonable money.. The military has no tradition of holding political opinions, as long as nothing clearly unconstitutional happens. As long as the Supreme Court has awarded Trump victory, the military will be on Trump’s side, Moe responds.
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– Most executive orders can be reversed
– But, what if he loses, is it possible that he can put sticks in the wheels of his rival Biden and take revenge in various ways to make it difficult to start the presidency?
– There is probably nothing to suggest that Trump will be a good loser. However, he will not be able to pass bills that require a 60-40 majority in the Senate, and most executive orders can be reversed. If, for example, Obamacare appears in the Supreme Court, it is the result of the new 6-3 majority in the Supreme Court and will have nothing to do with the transition period. It’s probably foreign policy that wants the most room for maneuver without me fully seeing what it’s going to be used for, thinks Moe.
– Trump has no intention of voluntarily resigning
He believes that Trump, in any case, will sell dearly and that he does not intend to give up power without resistance.
– I suspect there will be a month and a half of constant complaints that the election is illegitimate, which is a bigger hurdle than most other things. You can, for example, encourage far-right groups to be on guard for the next four years, etc. Beyond that, unless Biden has a clear victory on election night, the election will be lawyer food. Trump has no intention of voluntarily resigning.
– Trump definitely risks lawsuits if he has to resign
How do you assess the risk of Trump risking lawsuits if he has to resign? Are there many who now want revenge on Trump because then he no longer has immunity?
– Trump definitely risks lawsuits if he has to resign. Special lawsuit in New York. So while the federal system may prioritize leaving things to chance, to avoid further problems, the federal government has no control over the state. And there he cannot enter with any forgiveness. I suppose most of the people who want revenge will eventually stay in the limelight for the sake of national health. As wonderful as it would have been for some to see the man behind “locking her up” end up in jail, these people also know that it will be devastating for the political climate.says Espen Moe.
– No one is likely to die in the first place
– What political room for maneuver will Trump have in the run-up to the presidential inauguration on January 20, if it turns out that he is going to defeat Biden?
– In principle, there are no restrictions on what you can do during the transition period. The custom is for an outgoing president, so-called a “lame jerk,” sits quietly on the boat and does nothing unless a crisis hits. But Trump has shown time and again that he doesn’t care about mores and the Republican majority in the Senate under Mitch McConnell, too. If another judge on the Democratic Supreme Court died, he could have imagined something would happen. But it is likely that no one dies in the first place, and they understand that the resentment on the Democratic side had become so great that the Democrats had expanded the Supreme Court with 2-4 new justices, explains the American expert.
– Not yet sentenced
He adds that it is worth remembering that there are also elections to the Senate. If the Democrats win, which he estimates to be a 2/3 chance, they can stop all bills except executive orders and all judge appointments.
– It will also make it impossible for Republicans to stop a Supreme Court case, as they did earlier this year. But it’s not convicted yet because there must be a 2/3 majority for it, but the Supreme Court case will at least be over.says Espen Moe.
He’s also relatively confident that Trump will pardon some convicts during the transition period. Several of Trump’s supporters have been jailed during Trump’s four years as president of the United States.
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