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– I knew Norway had done well during the pandemic, but this is completely unique, says a Swedish historian who has taken a closer look at excess mortality in Europe.
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist is a historian at Stockholm University and has recently published the book “Corona – the pandemic of our time in a historical perspective”. Ljungqvist has taken a closer look at excess mortality in pandemic Europe.
Excess mortality, also called excess mortality or displacement of mortality, indicates a temporary increase in mortality in a given population. Excess mortality can be used as an analytical tool to measure how deadly a virus is during a pandemic.
Ljungqvist has calculated the excess mortality in European countries for 2020 by comparing the number of deaths in 2020 with the average for the years 2016-2019.
It is based on 31 current and former OECD European countries, as they have a similar starting point as developed countries with larger populations.
Ljungqvist says that the excess mortality figures in Europe in 2020 show that Sweden is among the least affected European countries. According to Ljungqvist’s calculations, around two-thirds of countries in Europe had significantly higher excess mortality than Sweden in 2020.
On the other hand, when it comes to excess mortality, Sweden is the most affected in the Nordic region. Norway is not only the least affected in the entire Nordic region, but also in all of Europe, figures from Ljungqvist show.
According to Ljungqvist’s calculations, only Norway has had a death rate among the 31 European countries included in the analysis.
– I was surprised to see the figures for Norway, Ljungqvist tells Nettavisen.
Also read: EU: 450,000 on mortality between March and November
– Mortality in Norway
In Europe, the countries Liechtenstein, Spain and Poland finished at the top with an excess mortality rate in 2020 of 20.8%, 18.9% and 18.7%, respectively.
At the other end of the scale, Norway finishes at the bottom with a so-called death rate (i.e. below average) of minus 0.4%, Latvia with 0.4% and Denmark with 1.6% .
Iceland, Finland, and Sweden had an excess mortality rate of 1.6%, 2.7%, and 7.6%, respectively, in 2020.
Preliminary figures from Statistics Norway (SSB) show that there were 337 fewer deaths in Norway in 2020 compared to the average of the last five years.
Also read: New figures surprise Statistics Norway: Fewer deaths in 2020
Norway theory and pandemics
Ljungqvist has shown an interesting pattern in the Nordic countries when it comes to excess mortality from previous epidemics and pandemics. During major disease outbreaks, such as the Asian disease (1957), Hong Kong disease (1969), and the major seasonal flu in 1976, both Sweden and Denmark were generally more affected than Norway, Finland, and Iceland. Sweden and Denmark also have the highest excess mortality in 2020 among the Nordic countries.
– In 1976, there was a seasonal flu that strongly affected people over 65 in Sweden and Denmark. It had roughly the same death rate as the crown. Norway, Finland and Iceland were not so affected. Sweden was also slightly more affected than Norway, Finland and Iceland during Hong Kong disease and Asia disease, Ljungqvist told Nettavisen.
Geographic location
Ljungqvist believes this is due to the geographic locations of Norway, Finland, and Iceland.
– I think geographic location has been an important prerequisite for Norway, Finland and Iceland to have done so well during the pandemic and disease outbreaks in 1957, 1969 and 1976. These countries have less population density, less urban areas contiguous, longer distances to the mainland, and less integrated with the mainland than Sweden and Denmark, Ljungqvist says.
– I knew that Norway had done well during the pandemic, but it is completely unique that Norway is the only country in Europe that has had mortality in 2020. This may be due to the combination of measures that are being taken so early, and above all Geographical location has had a lot to say. Norway wouldn’t be as successful if it were in central Europe, says Ljungqvist.
– The strange thing is that Denmark has done as well as it has done. It’s hard to explain why, he says.
– Fewer deaths from influenza
The strict infection control measures introduced in Europe during the pandemic may have reduced the number of deaths related, for example, to seasonal flu. In Norway, practically no cases of seasonal influenza have been detected during the corona pandemic. In this sense, this could also affect the excess mortality of a country, but Ljungqvist points out that there is a similar pattern for the whole of Europe and that therefore it does not matter for comparison.
– Mortality in other infectious diseases has decreased due to infection control measures. I think deaths from accidents have also decreased because there are fewer people traveling. I think this probably applies to all European countries, he says.
– There are more people who die from cardiovascular diseases because there are many who do not go to the doctor and hospital. But in general, the excess mortality is due to covid-19. If you compare the official figures for deaths from covid-19 with the official figures for excess mortality, then you are quite correct. Of course, there will be some variations, he says.
NIPH: significantly higher overall mortality in Europe
In the weekly report of total mortality in week 6, the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) writes that there has been a significant increase in total mortality in Europe in recent weeks.
“In recent weeks, figures from Europe show a significant increase in overall mortality, coinciding with the increase in covid-19 infection in several countries. The overall excess mortality is due to a significant excess mortality in some countries and it is mainly linked to the age group 45 years and over, ”the weekly report reads.
“There has been a significant excess of mortality in Europe coinciding with the covid19 pandemic (March-April 2020), especially in the 65-year-old group or over, but also in the age groups 45 to 64 years and 15 to 44 years, “writes the National Institute of Public Health.
Also read: surprising findings: – The death toll in New York below the crown and the Spanish flu is comparable
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