Trump’s Supreme Court case looms over Biden at an uncertain time – VG

He wanted to kick-start the presidency and has already signed 17 presidential orders with many symbols in the first hours after he took office.

But even though he’s now sworn in as president, Joe Biden is not sparing the ghosts of his predecessor Donald Trump. Because the much-discussed Supreme Court case will steal time and take up resources in the Senate that the new president may need to use for other things.

An additional complicating factor for Biden is that he doesn’t even know when the Supreme Court case will begin.

Pelosi decides

It was in the wake of the congressional storm three weeks ago that a majority in the House of Representatives voted for President Donald Trump to stand for trial a second time, making him the first president to stand trial twice during his term.

Now it is up to the Senate to decide whether he will be convicted.

The timing of the actual start of the test is still uncertain, but according to ABC News, it is expected to happen during this week. “It’s urgent,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said earlier this week, but without mentioning a start date, the New York Times wrote.

Because that’s exactly what Nancy Pelosi “everyone” is waiting for right now. Only when you send the indictment from the Supreme Court to the Senate can the case begin.

– He has not yet said when he will do it, but it is expected to happen soon, US expert Eirik Løkke in Civita tells VG.

Uncertain time horizon

Senate regulations state that once the process is underway, the Senate will work every afternoon, except Sundays, to complete the Supreme Court case.

Democratic representatives will be sure to do some additional work, while several of the Republicans have wanted to curb expectations in this regard and believe that the Supreme Court case will occupy all their time during the period that it is running, reports US News.

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The way forward is unclear, confirms researcher Hilmar Mjelde.

– The Senate decides for itself the details of the Supreme Court case, and we do not know what it will be like or the time horizon for it. But I think it will go pretty fast in the Senate, because the impeachment is simple, the facts are known, and Trump doesn’t seem to mobilize any great defense team, he says.

Løkke in Civita says the following:

– Schumer and McConnell, leader of the Democrats and Republicans in the Senate, are in favor of a serious and fair treatment. So the case lasts more than a couple of days, but it is unlikely to last. The first Supreme Court case lasted less than three weeks. There is no reason to believe this will be longer, believes Løkke.

“Unfortunate distraction”

US expert and researcher at the Norwegian Research Center NORCE, Hilmar Mjelde, describes the Supreme Court case as an “unfortunate distraction” for Biden.

– You now have the greatest margin for political action. Early political success can increase your political capital and your reputation for later political tug of war. So Congress is not giving Biden the full focus on his agenda that Biden really needs, Mjelde tells VG.

It is supported by another American expert, the advisor Eirik Løkke of the Civita think tank.

– It is potentially damaging to the agenda and attention to Biden’s policy that this case has been added to the first 100 days. Second, it can make it more difficult to reunite America, if you break the wounds and divisions that Trump and his personality cause, Løkke believes, but adds:

– It is probably prudent for this Supreme Court case to be decided sooner rather than later, and it will make it easier for Biden to follow his agenda, without having a Supreme Court case against a former president on the air, he tells VG.

Is Trump being condemned?

If convicted, at least 17 of Trump’s Republican Party colleagues must vote against him. As for the outcome, Løkke believes that it is difficult to predict.

– The result is currently uncertain. In the first Supreme Court case, we certainly knew Trump was going to be acquitted, but Trump’s support in the Republican Party is significantly lower now than after the attack on Capitol Hill. Many Republicans, especially McConnell, will likely not apologize if Trump is convicted and then denied a chance to run for re-election, which will be the result if he is convicted, he says.

Additionally, Trump will lose many privileges – secret service, office space, foreign travel – that presidents enjoy if convicted, Løkke adds.

The most important symbolism

Løkke says that as far as he knows, none of the Republicans have publicly said that they will vote in favor of a conviction, but that several have indicated that the president has been guilty of the charges.

– There are many Republicans who speak evasively and argue that “they should consider the evidence and listen to the diplomas” before making a decision. Overall, I think a lot of Republican senators will closely follow polls on how popular Trump is with Republican polls, before deciding what they want to do.

Although Trump may be specifically denied the opportunity to become president again in the future, the symbolism remains the most important thing in this case, Mjelde believes.

– Democrats want to point out that if he behaves as Trump has, they will judge him. So this Supreme Court is equally aimed at possible future autocratic outbreaks. A higher preventive court, one might say, explains the NORCE investigator.