The Oslo Stock Exchange falls 1.5 percent from the beginning

Several stocks in the main index of the Oslo Stock Exchange were down 10-15 percent in the first few minutes, but by 9:30 am the slide has eased somewhat. However, most stocks are solid in the red.

The main index falls about 1.5 percent. The price of oil falls closer to four percent.

Nordea’s chief strategist for Wealth Management, Erik Bruce, thinks it is obvious that it is news of a mutated variant of the coronavirus in the UK that is driving the stock market crash:

– This mutation gives a new fear of harder closures and that it will be more difficult to get rid of the virus. Normally, the agreement on a US support package would have given a boost, and we saw future indices on US stock exchanges point higher first. But the consensus in Congress has probably been included in the market price for a while.

Does not change the market view

This weekend, politicians in the United States Congress agreed to a $ 900 billion crown crisis package.

Bruce believes that currently only real news is affecting the market:

– The support package came at a price, and the bad news about the mutation is the real news. News about viruses and vaccines will be the engine until vaccination has started successfully. The market is focusing on this right now. It will also be the image early next year. But there can also be positive news. Although the mutation makes it more contagious, it can also lead to greater caution between people, meaning that infection rates do not necessarily increase.

In the long term, Bruce believes that news about the mutation doesn’t have much to say, but that it can get more confusing in the short term:

– This does not change my opinion that the market will greatly revise the situation we are in now and that we can open during the spring. There is an agreement on a package in the US and then consumption will increase during normalization. But this development will likely support growth stocks for a while longer. There will be a little more closing, interest rates a little lower a little more. The industry turnover of value stocks probably won’t continue in full until things look a little brighter.

– Liquidity expires before Christmas

Manager Kristian Tunaal at Alfred Berg absolutely believes there is cause for concern.

– If you look at the consequences of what the virus has done, then yes. If there is a new form of virus, the worst case scenario is that the vaccines that have been developed must be adjusted and modified. We breathed a bit of relief when vaccines came on the scene, and if there is a new type of virus, we may have to wait a little longer, says Tunaal, who believes the market has learned to live with the virus for a mutation to be manageable.

– How do you position yourself compared to the current year?

– We do little at the end of the year. We have the positions that we want to have that are relatively strong in our opinion, he says.

The most important positions in the fund he manages, Nordic Gambak, are the forestry and garden equipment company Husqvarna, the games company Evolution Gaming and the Holmen forestry group.

– So we must remember that we have little data to relate to about this new mutation of the virus. Our attitude is that making urgent decisions based on scarce data is a bad methodology. We’ll probably see it before we make any significant changes, says Tunaal.

– Liquidity runs out before Christmas and that also means that it is difficult to do something now, he says.

– Logical

The article continues below the announcement.

Storebrand manager Hans Thrane Nielsen says both macroeconomic figures have been better than expected in the last six months. Quarterly figures for the third quarter have also been better than consensus. In addition, new vaccines and extensive stimuli have been received from central banks and authorities.

– Most stock investors have probably accepted that the stock price is based on 2021 earnings, he says.

– When the market receives virus news that 2021 is not in the box, then it probably makes sense for the stock market to take a small step back from the all-time high, says Thrane Nielsen.(Terms)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and / or our suppliers. We would like you to share our cases via a link, which leads directly to our pages. Copying or other use of all or part of the content can only be done with written permission or as permitted by law. For more terms, see here.