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I’m sorry. A week before Christmas Eve, infection rates have stopped falling. There are now around 5,100 infectious people in Norway.
Strict contagion measures, orders and recommendations to stay home as long as possible characterize before Christmas.
After several weeks of declining numbers, the positive evolution has slowed down.
On Sunday December 13, some 5,100 infected people walked through Norway. About six out of ten do not know they are infected or have not been tested.
This is shown in the FHI estimates in last week’s report.
There is now a 60 percent chance that the pandemic will rise again as we enter the Christmas season.
Here’s what you need to know about the current infection situation in Norway.
1. Now the spread of infection is increasing again
The hard facts first.
After several weeks of declining infection rates, there is now a slight six percent increase to 2,685 new cases of infection.
This is reflected in FHI’s estimates of how much the infection is actually spreading.
- Since November 4, FHI has estimated that the reproduction rate has been 0.9.
- In week 50, the number r increased to 1.1. This means that, based on FHI models, the probability that the pandemic will rise again at this time is 60 percent.
Just a week ago it looked brighter.
This is a sign that Norway no longer intends to reduce infection rates, as is the goal of strict infection measures.
2. A little more test
The main reason for last week’s increase is probably that a few more were tested.
The number of tests increased by eight percent.
However, the figures show that the lack of evidence remains a major problem.
The frequency of testing is still well below the peak level of early November. It can be interpreted as that capacity has exploded or that very few choose to put themselves to the test.
There are many indications that they are the last.
In most large municipalities, including Oslo, people can test for free a few hours in advance.
3. Many test positive
The proportion of positive test results is decreasing slightly.
This is the most positive development trend of the past week.
It is interpreted as if the underlying infection in society is roughly the same as in recent weeks. It has neither risen nor fallen.
4. Infection among immigrants greater than expected
36 percent of new cases in week 50 are foreign-born.
Last week, growth was highest among foreign-born in Eritrea, Somalia, Afghanistan and Syria.
But in recent weeks, FHI has created a new kind of statistic that we haven’t seen before.
It indicates that the pressure of infection is much higher in more immigrant communities than official figures suggest.
You will get the explanation if you study the following table.
If we look at the proportion of positive samples distributed by country of birth in recent weeks, the differences are very large.
Among those born in Norway, 2.06 test positive. For all the larger immigrant groups, with the exception of Swedes, the proportion is much higher.
Among test takers born in Somalia, Eritrea, Pakistan, Iraq, Turkey and Romania, for example, more than 10 percent received a positive response in weeks 46-49.
This is five times higher than the level among those born in Norway.
On the positive side, there are now more immigrant groups proving themselves more than those born in Norway.
But the high proportion of positive tests remains worrying. This means that many more people should be tested and that there are many undetected infections in these settings, according to FHI.
Therefore, the big question is whether the infection measures of the health authorities are sufficiently precise.
Where in the country is it best before Christmas?
Eight days before Christmas Eve, the picture of infection in Norway is as follows:
In Oslo and Viken, it is clear that most people have new cases of infection, even if the level is stable or decreasing. About seven out of ten cases of infection in Norway are here.
The lowest levels of infection in Norway are found in Rogaland and Troms / Finnmark.
Rogaland is the only county that has fewer than 20 new cases per year. 100,000 inhabitants.
With the exception of Oslo Viken, Oslo, Innlandet and Vestfold / Telemark, all other counties have less than 50 new cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants in the last two weeks.
Where does the infection spread?
The answer to that is, sadly, that we know less and less.
The reason is that the data from the NIPH, the Norwegian Directorate of Health and the government is getting worse and worse.
In the past two weeks, infection tracking data is available for only 1,521 out of 5,209 new cases of infection.
This means that central health authorities have received no information from local infection hunters on 71 percent of new infection cases.
The reason is important and fundamental weaknesses in the national MSIS infection monitoring system, which is based on data from the municipalities.
Of the 1521 cases where data is available, the image is the same as before:
- Most are infected at home, specifically 46 percent.
- Then comes work or college (17 percent) and private events (9 percent).
- Five percent of the cases are from kindergartens or schools.
