Consumer price index, price increase | New surprise figures: drop in the price of gasoline



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Gasoline prices have fallen dramatically in the past year.

Recent figures from Statistics Norway (SSB) show that prices fell 0.7% in November and increased 0.7% between November 2019 and November 2020.

A major factor contributing to falling prices is the prices of gasoline and oil. Statistics Norway writes that fuel and lubricant prices were 14.9% lower in November this year compared to November last year.

A retail price of 12-13 kroner is now common at service stations for 95 octane unleaded gasoline, although there are some significant variations throughout the week. However, in January this year, before the crisis in the crown began, there was talk of record prices for gasoline, as a result of the high price of oil.

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Ticket prices plummeted

The biggest price drop in November has the prices of passenger transport by air, which fell a total of 16.9 percent in November. According to Statistics Norway, it was the prices of domestic flights that contributed the most to the drop.

Prices for fuels and lubricants were 14.9% lower in November compared to November last year.

Electricity prices, including network rent, are also much lower than at the same time last year. Electricity prices fell as much as 9.8 percent in the previous month.

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Rarely

Statistics Norway writes that historically it is rare for electricity prices to fall from October to November. The sharp drop in prices must be seen in relation to the fact that November has been characterized by rain, wind and mild temperatures. In general, electricity prices in 2020 have been at very low levels compared to previous years.

From November last year to November this year, electricity prices, including network rent, fell to 34.6%.

The trend in food prices is in the opposite direction, which is the most important reason for the 0.7% increase in the consumer price index. Food prices increased 4.0 percent between November 2019 and November 2020. Additionally, an increase in car prices of 4.6 percent also contributed in the last twelve-month period.

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Carried to bed

Core inflation (see below) fell 0.4 percent in November and increased 2.9 percent annually. This is much lower than the experts imagined, for example DNB Markets expected a rise of 3.5 percent, the market of 3.3 percent.

Handelsbanken Capital Markets writes in its morning report that it was especially imported inflation that fell in November. According to the bank’s experts, it has long been known that it will decline markedly in the future.

This is because the effect of the weakening of the crown that we saw at the beginning of the crisis of the crown is now waning. The crown has strengthened again, resulting in cheaper imports.

In October, prices rose 0.3% and 1.7% in the last twelve months. Core inflation, inflation adjusted for energy products and tax variations, was 0.1 percent per month and 3.4 percent annually.

Core inflation remains well above the long-term target price of 2%, according to which Norges Bank manages interest rate policy. In isolation, a price increase significantly greater than 2 percent increases the risk of increases in interest rates.

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Without importance

But inflation is not an issue for Norges Bank’s key policy rate during the crown pandemic. However, DNB Markets believes that we can achieve an interest rate increase as early as next year and not in 2022 as Norges Bank has pointed out.

The consumer price index (CPI) shows the evolution of consumer prices of goods and services demanded by private households living in Norway. The change in the CPI is a common measure of inflation.

The CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) is a measure of the underlying evolution of consumer prices.

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Electric shock: spot price 53.49 øre – fixed price 4.90 øre

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