– Even more looking forward to 2021 – E24

– It’s pretty extreme. Corona and low interest rates have merged into a powerful cocktail, Privatmegleren director Grethe Meier tells E24.

– I don’t think we will see any lucky developments in the housing market now. And I’m even more looking forward to 2021, she says.

The unusual rise in house prices this fall can be rounded off with even more expensive homes in November, and Oslo may see double-digit growth in twelve months for the first time in a long time.

This is shown in the E24 check round ahead of Thursday’s official housing figures from the brokerage industry.

Neither DNB Eiendom, Privatmegleren, Aktiv, Krogsveen nor the Eie chain see signs of a price drop in their internal sales statistics for November, the directors of the broker chains reported to E24.

Is unusual.

Price growth every month since March

November normally belongs to a cool fall season in the housing market, where prices tend to decline. But the crown year 2020 so far does not seem normal.

House prices have risen every month since March, when the pandemic hit and shut down Norway.

This includes new growth in both September and October, two typically weak housing months.

One explanation is that the pandemic has forced Norges Bank to apply low interest rates. Gives more Norwegians advice on juicy mortgage servicing.

At the same time, economists have wondered how long interest rate cuts can continue to lubricate the housing market. A little more, indicates the E24 verification round. All broker managers reject signs of falling prices in their own sales figures.

– No, our own figures show higher price growth, says Meier at Privatmegleren.

Against double-digit annual growth in Oslo

– Our sales figures show that it spends more than below the suggested price. So I think we will see price growth in November, says director Karsten Onsrud at Aktiv chain.

– There is no sign of a drop in prices, says Krogsveen director Stian Kløfta, who says it all indicates “continued positive growth” in house prices nationwide.

– In Oslo, I expect a stronger price increase of around two percent. Then soon we will see a twelve-month growth of eleven percent in the capital.

– Its alot?

– Its alot.

– You are worried?

– If in the long run we do not get more homes in the capital market, it worries me. Because then this will be an unhealthy price increase that one needs powerful political instruments to curb. And nobody wants that, replies the head of Krogsveen.

Twelve-month growth in Oslo was 9.5 percent in October, according to brokerage industry figures.

“Blue prescription credit”

DNB Eiendom CEO Terje Buraas notes that house prices tend to fall by around one percent in November.

– But in our portfolio, it seems that we would rather see weak price growth, once again. We are at the top of the month and average prices are almost nine percent higher than at the same time last year, says Buraas.

He says they had a record number of home sales in November, but still not to match nearly insatiable demand. The broker manager explains that several groups of home buyers have grown at the same time:

– We see more investors in cities signing up for bidding rounds and low interest rates mean that many tenants now want to buy. They are usually young partners and students, says Buraas.

– I think some of them have literally met their parents at the exhibition door, he says.

Hedda Ulvness, senior manager at Eie chain, says this boom in demand creates an imbalance in the market.

– And then the prices go up more. These are abnormal times, he tells E24.

Buraas admits that development worries him a bit.

– We have never had zero interest rates in Norway before. He’s given us credit for a blue recipe, says DNB manager Eiendom.

Fears that price pressure will continue in 2021

– And what is happening now in Oslo is that nobody dares to sell before buying, because they are not sure if they are going to get a house. This leads to a self-reinforcing supply shortage.

Meier at Privatmegleren calls the current development unhealthy. He fears that the imbalance between buyers and sellers will only intensify in 2021.

– Low interest rates give Norwegians good purchasing power and many want to move now. Funny how hard the crown and interest rates hit in combination: the crown makes more people want to move into a new home, and then the interest rate goes up and makes very favorable loans.

– Can’t eliminate the interest rate effect?

– No, I don’t think it was removed.

The acting director believes that the crown year will end with inflation also in December, a month that usually offers a decrease.

– When can the arrows finally turn?

– I do not foresee a price drop next year, as it is now with macro images. Something depends on unemployment. But the zero policy rate will continue to fuel the fire.