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The Center Party is now more than twice the size of Frp in the recent Nettavisen poll.
The Progress Party is going to have a real hit before Christmas in the December Nettavisen de Sentio poll. The party is down a total of 4.5 percentage points since November, to a record weak support of 8.8 percent.
Sentio has never measured a Frp as low as this. There are only three of our previous measurements where they have received less than 10 percent support, says Martin Stubban of Sentio to Nettavisen.
Gunnar Stavrum: “Christmas Erna” sets a historical bourgeois record after eight years of budget unity
The party of the FRP leader, Siv Jensen, has thus returned to the low level it had before the departure of the government in January, and that together with the lack of success was precisely the reason why they left the majority government of Erna Solberg.
Also in the TV2 parliamentary poll on Tuesday, Frp obtained a record result.
See the results for all parts below.
Also read: Frp-top wreck: – Dirty games and power struggles
Listhaug: – Really bad
If this had been the result of the elections, the Progress Party would have lost ten of today’s Storting representatives and would have ended up with 17 Storting politicians.
Sylvi Listhaug, deputy leader of the FRP, does not hide that she is disappointed.
– This is a really bad measure for us. Now we will roll up our sleeves and work very hard for the election campaign, Listhaug says in a comment to Nettavisen.
Stubban believes that there may be several reasons for measuring the party’s crisis.
– Less than half of the party’s voters in the 2017 parliamentary elections, only 39 percent, will vote for FRP again. These are very poor loyalty figures, and only the Liberal Party has less loyalty in this poll, he says.
At the same time, background figures show that 22 percent of those who voted for Frp in 2017 are now unsure what to vote for. Stubban believes that much will depend on the footprint the party has received on the state budget, so that they can show their voters that they have influence.
So far, the budget negotiations have not brought the party any benefits. On Tuesday night, the results of the budget agreement between the government and the FRP were presented, where the FRP has received, among other things, several tax cuts on so-called goods exposed to border trade.
In the poll, 1,000 people were asked why they would vote if there were parliamentary elections tomorrow. The poll was conducted from November 24 to 29 and has a margin of error of 1.2 to 3.2 percent.
Also read: Towards the bourgeois budget unit – FRP calls in organs
65,000 to the Center Party
However, one who can cheer is the leader of the Center Party, Trygve Slagsvold Vedum. After a major drop in Nettavisen’s November poll, the party is back to wind in its sails.
The Center Party, which set itself the lurid goal of becoming bigger than the FRP four years ago, is now more than double Jensen’s party, with 18.4 percent support.
This is two percentage points from November, and the background figures show that it is especially from the Progress Party that they steal voters.
– Last week, the Center Party presented its alternative state budget with, among other things, tax cuts, strengthened business support schemes and increased use of oil money. Frp’s net outflow of voters to the Center Party is up to 65,000 voters, Stubban says.
In November, the flight of voters from the FRP to the Center Party was 19,000, compared to the 2017 parliamentary elections.
– This indicates that the FRP voters liked what the Center Party presented, says Stubban.
He also has no doubt that much of the progress is due to the party leader.
– Vedum is popular and highly visible in the media. They have also gained great credibility in district politics by speaking of “close services to the people” for a long time, he says.
Also read: The Center Party will increase the tax on 664,000 Norwegians
Vedum: – Frp has failed
Vedum himself takes everything in stride, but does not hide that he is happy.
– 18.4 percent is a very good number, and four percentage points above the best local choice we’ve had in our 100-year history, he tells Nettavisen.
The SP leader thinks that much is because they have been clear over time in various cases.
– I think it’s about that we have been so clear that we want to secure Norwegian jobs, basic services close to the people and use the whole country, says Vedum.
– At the same time that you advance, Frp is doing very badly. what do you think about it?
– They have failed many of those who voted for them. Take, for example, the taxi industry, where they have raised fares and driven a launch that makes being a cab driver even more difficult, he says.
In the TV2 and VG poll conducted on Tuesday, the Center Party is also the largest party in the country, and larger than the Conservatives and the Labor Party for the first time.
– Measurements will vary slightly. We just have to say what we want to say, and then it is the voters who are ultimately the sovereign judges, Vedum says about it.
Also read: New TV 2 poll: The Center Party is Norway’s biggest party
Here are the results for all parts:
– The right mobilizes more
However, the biggest in Sentio’s poll are the Conservatives, who have been stably high in the polls for a long time. The party gets 26.5 percent support, which is 1.5 percentage points.
– Conservatives clearly mobilize more in the group of voters who did not vote or are not sure why they voted in 2017, says Sentio’s number analyzer.
But the Conservatives also steal many voters from their former government partner FRP, a total of 35,000 voters compared to the parliamentary elections. They wanted to strengthen their parliamentary group with five representatives and get a total of 50 parliamentary representatives.
Additionally, the background figures for the transfer of voters from the Labor Party to the Conservative Party have risen since November, from 1,000 to 15,000 this month.
– 26.5 are very good numbers for conservatives. It is more or less the result of our 2013 elections, and I think it is really good that so many voters still believe in us and our solutions for Norway, says Conservative Deputy Leader Tina Bru in a comment to Nettavisen.
On the other hand, things are worse for Tory government partners Venstre and KrF, both of whom end up in the shadow of the Tories and end up below the four percent restriction limit. After KrF crossed the threshold in November, the party is now back 0.8 percentage points, down to 3.4 percent.
The Liberal Party is roughly at the same level as last month, with a result of 2.9 percent.
Also read: He will break up with Erna Solberg after 40 years: – Now it has to make sense!
– Labor is completely in the shadows
On the red-green side, the Labor Party is slightly ahead, with a result of 22.4 percent.
– Labor has ended up completely in the shadows and lose many voters to the Center Party, a total of 60,000. The party is struggling to shift its focus to its core issues, says Stubban, adding:
– They are trying to challenge the Center Party on district politics, including launching a district politics program. Because the Center Party in any case has so much credibility in this area, the Labor Party runs the risk that communication is not sufficiently focused. In the eyes of the voters, then it becomes too confusing what the Labor Party wants.
Labor MP Bjørnar Skjæran is also not satisfied.
– It is cautious progress, but still disappointingly low. At the same time, this is another poll showing a majority for a Labor-led government with SP and SV. We have a job to do with showing how we can save jobs through the crisis, rebuild when the pandemic ends, and develop schools, kindergartens and hospitals after eight years of bourgeois cuts with cheese graters, Skjæran tells Nettavisen.
At the same time, SV decreased slightly, by 0.6 percentage points since November, to 7.0%. But like KrF and the Liberal Party, both the Red Party and the Green Party (ODM) finish just below the magic limit, with results of 3.96 and 3.98 percent respectively.
Also read: ODM is in favor of cooperation with the left
Clear majority for change
Had the poll been the result of the elections, Labor leader Jonas Gahr Støre would likely have become the country’s next prime minister. Former government colleagues Ap, SV and Senterpartiet have a solid majority at the polls, with a total of 92 MPs (85 are the majority). Therefore, Støre is no longer dependent on Rødt’s support or the MDGs, as it did last month.
The parties that support Erna Solberg as prime minister will receive a total of 72 seats. This is a reduction of nine parliamentary representatives from November, and far from the majority.
Check out the latest parliamentary polls from Nettavisene:
November: The Center Party is declining sharply in a new poll: Ignite hope for the bourgeoisie
October: New Impact Measurement: Thriller About the Prime Minister’s Job
September: Measurement: worst job outcome in 17 years
August: ODM below threshold: Erna increases gap with Jonas
June: Erna Solberg has rushed forward: measurement shows that she is now changing
More to the right
According to background figures from the December poll, it is now the FRP that has the most insecure voters. 22.5 percent of those who voted for the party in the last parliamentary elections say they are now unsure whether they will vote for the party again. While in November it was the Liberal Party that had the most insecure voters (31.6 percent). After the FRP, the MDGs (20.5 percent) and the Liberals (20 percent) have many insecure voters sitting on the fence.
Of the voters who did not vote in the 2017 parliamentary elections, the majority responded that they will vote for the Conservatives (18 percent) and the second most for the Labor Party (11 percent).
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