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The National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) writes in a recent risk report.
The spread of infection in Norway is stably high, but with large local variations. The sharp increase in the number of reported cases and hospitalizations appears to be declining.
FHI: Fears continue that corona pandemic will spiral out of control
– This may be an incipient effect of the new measures from late October and early November, says director Camilla Stoltenberg at FHI.
Danger of new rise
However, the situation is unstable with the danger of a new increase. Strong sustained efforts are needed to reduce the spread of the infection in the Oslo area while municipalities in other parts of the country must rapidly detect and control its outbreaks.
According to the report, NIPH considers that there is a high probability that some municipalities or municipal groups, especially in the Oslo area, will have a persistently higher level throughout the winter.
NIPH is also concerned about the coming weeks and the approach of Christmas.
– The concern in the coming weeks is particularly related to foreign people who will visit their relatives in Norway at Christmas and Norwegian students and foreign workers who return home for Christmas, the report notes.
Fear of the Christmas wave
Worried about Oslo students
The likelihood that infected travelers to Norway start local outbreaks increases with the number of people and with the proximity and duration of contact with people in Norway, writes FHI.
– Therefore, we are especially concerned for those who return to Norway after studying or working abroad and who have their quarantine in the family home.
This will be canceled before Christmas
The risk of increasing infection from imports to Norway is considered moderate, given the continuation of advice and restrictions to the same effect as today.
They describe the infection situation in Norway as fragile and expect several local outbreaks in the coming weeks. In particular, the concern is related to Christmas activities, such as concerts, services, family parties, Christmas dinners and Christmas closings. After all, meetings that can lead to further spread of the infection.
The fact that more people travel to the country before Christmas can also spread the infection from the worst affected areas. This especially applies to students traveling home from the Oslo area to other parts of the country.
– Constant threat
FHI believes that municipalities’ ability to manage outbreaks has improved during the fall and that they are generally able to control local outbreaks. However, they are concerned that one will not gain control fast enough and thus lose track. The consequence is a regional boom, as seen in Oslo and Bergen.
– These regional situations with increasingly high levels represent a constant threat of spread to other parts of the country and a constant danger of local outbreaks in other municipalities. It appears that the situation in the Oslo area is being better controlled, but measures will still need to be strengthened, writes FHI.
The probability of further spread in Norway is now considered high locally and high regionally. The probability of further spread of the infection nationwide, when the infection is not related to identified local outbreaks, is considered moderate.
