Surprisingly strong purchase growth in October – E24

Norwegian retail trade increased 1.2 percent from September to October.

This is shown in Statistics Norway’s recent retail statistics from Friday.

In advance, economists expected growth of 0.5 percent, according to Bloomberg. However, estimates differed between the highest expectation of 0.6 percent growth and the lowest with a 0.7 percent decline.

“The biggest contribution to overall growth came from grocery stores, which have strengthened it since the start of the pandemic,” writes Statistics Norway.

E-commerce stores and pharmacies also contributed to the growth. In clothing stores, gas stations and furniture stores, by contrast, there was a decline that slowed down overall growth.

The crown crisis has distorted consumption

The previous month, trade showed a cautious rise of 0.3 percent, after a sharp drop in August.

However, the sales volume has been significantly higher than before the crown crisis. Before August, Norwegian purchases had increased for four months in a row, between April and July. The strongest growth was recorded in June, when retail trade increased 5.7 percent.

The corona pandemic has helped Norwegians in recent months shift their consumption in the direction of spending less money on purchasing services and more on consuming goods.

Trade in Norway is also affected by declining cross-border trade and fewer trips abroad.

Believe in a bigger uprising towards the end of the year

Handelsbanken, which in turn expected a more moderate growth of 0.5%, is now very excited about the statistics for the next few months.

“Retail sales will probably receive a new boost towards the end of the year. Precisely because consumption is once again shifting from a service sector that is again affected by various restrictions,” the brokerage writes in a comment.

“Consumption of services is still low compared to pre-crisis levels and, as I said, we should expect this part of consumption to decline in the near future.”

NHO chief economist Øystein Dørum also notes a solid increase in online shopping, after the rise in infection has again led to more people sitting at home. In October alone, there was a 9.3 percent increase in this category.

Consumption of goods is falling

However, the broader consumer goods index, which also includes car purchases and electricity, fell 1.1 percent in October.

Both the auto and electricity categories are down about 7 percent this month.

Here you will find the figures in Statistics Norway