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DNB Markets analyst Simen Mortensen and hotel investor Petter Stordalen have somewhat different views on how safe it is now to book a trip abroad next summer.
OPTIMIST: Petter Stordalen thinks people are “fucking tired” of the home office and is confident that tourism will return after the crown. – It is a great loss to face.
Screenshot of Norges Bank Financial Subject Day webinar
Published:,
Recent encouraging news about covid-19 vaccines may usher in the end of the corona pandemic.
However, DNB Markets analyst Simen Mortensen, who follows the commercial real estate market, is unsure how long it will be until the tourism industry is fully back on its feet.
It emphasizes that although a large part of the population must be vaccinated in the spring, this does not mean that they will be free to travel in the same sling.
– I think it will be more time before politicians from different countries say “yes, come with us, travel without restrictions,” said Mortensen on Monday, in a webinar organized by Norges Bank.
The central bank’s press officer Bård Ove Molberg asked Mortensen if he thought it was too early to book a Copenhagen holiday for next summer, something the DNB analyst confirmed.
The response from Petter Stordalen, the main protagonist of the conversation, was as follows:
– Damn pessimist!
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– Completely sure
It is worth mentioning that the hotel investor’s response was given with a smile, but Stordalen and Mortensen undoubtedly had two quite different perceptions of how certain it is that next summer will be good for the tourism industry.
– It will be completely safe to go to Copenhagen next summer, said Stordalen.
– We believe that summer will be good and I believe that even more so in autumn. If you look at what the forecasts said just a few months ago, they have been embarrassed. I have never been so optimistic since the beginning of the crown crisis as now.
At the same time, the tourism investor added that “good” in this context should be understood as a relative term, for example, a turnover that is “only” 25-30 percent lower than normal in 2019.
LESS LIKE THIS: Petter Stordalen opened Villa Copenhagen this summer. The next few years will contain very few new hotels, he believes.
Fredrik Hagen
Black night in November
Right now, though, things are pretty pessimistic, said Stordalen, who owns Scandinavian hotel giant Nordic Choice along with his sons, tour operator Ving and a part of the Hurtigruten cruise line.
– He’s still very demanding. I have a kind of déjà vu feeling, he told the accompanying videoconference participants, referring to the spring closure.
Because with the flourishing of infections and the “second round” of the crown, tourism has come to a complete halt again.
– March, April and May were absolutely screwed up. July was good, and in August, September and October we start to see certain opportunities, and then it is completely dark in November.
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Bankruptcies like we’ve never seen before
The most challenging thing, Stordalen says, is how the crisis affects so many people. Nordic Choice has laid off 7,500 employees and has also laid off employees.
And for the industry as a whole, it could be much worse, he fears. If the tourism industry experiences restrictions during the winter and spring, without further help, companies will go overboard.
– We will not see any wave of bankruptcies this side of the New Year, but in 2021, if it does not improve during March and April, then we will see a wave of bankruptcies that we have never seen before in history. set up the party.
And it will affect Choice as well, even though Stordalen is clear that the company is doing well now and that it will bounce back through the crisis.
– But I can’t have hotels in Copenhagen if there are no restaurants and other tourist companies there.
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