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When the clock passed 01 local time on Tuesday night in New York, American polling guru Nate Silver posted his latest prediction for the election on his own statistics website FiveThirtyEight.
On the website, opinion polls are weighted with previous results and methodology, and there are good reasons to follow what Silver concludes after performing a numerical calculation.
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– Biden wins
FiveThirtyEight’s latest prediction is bad news for incumbent President Donald Trump.
The site gives Trump a 10 percent chance of winning and Biden an 89 percent chance. He also believes that there is a one percent chance there will be a tie, and that both will get 269 voters each. Then it is the House of Representatives that decides the election.
“Trump needs a bigger than normal error (in the polls) in his favor, but the real possibility that the polls will underestimate Trump’s support is the reason he has a path to re-election,” writes Silver .
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Additionally, FiveThirtyEight believes there is a nearly 75 percent chance that Democrats will regain control of the Senate. It will give Joe Biden and the Democrats room for political action if he wins the election.
Otherwise, if Biden wins and the Republicans retain the majority in the Senate, the situation will be the same as in Obama’s last six years as president: almost all the political proposals that the Obama administration put forward were rejected in the Senate.
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Silver also believes that Democrats will retain the majority in the House of Representatives and perhaps expand the majority a bit.
“The general election environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have a good chance of controlling all three branches of government (a 72 percent chance, based on our forecast),” Silver wrote.
In recent days, both Biden and Trump have waged an intense election campaign to secure the last votes before Election Day.
A national poll average gives Biden 50.7 percent, compared to Trump’s 44 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.
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– Fake polls
As is well known, this is not the most important thing, as the battle is in the states. And it is possible to get the most votes, as Hillary Clinton did during the election four years ago, but still lose the election.
The two presidential candidates fight for 538 voters. That makes 270 the magic number. When one of the candidates has obtained the number of voters, he can be declared the winner.
The fight now takes place primarily in the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona.
Also in the auspicious states, Biden has had a small lead over Trump in recent days, but the lead isn’t big enough for Biden to relax.
The president himself takes the polls with overwhelming calm.
– I see these fake polls. We will win anyway, he told fans last night.
He defended the son: – Without cowardice
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FiveThirtyEight also pours cold water on those who are confident that Biden will win.
“A 10 percent chance of winning is not a 0 percent chance. In fact, it’s about the same as the odds that it will rain in downtown Los Angeles. And it’s raining there.” In downtown Los Angeles , there are about 36 rainy days this year, or about one-tenth the chance of a rainy day, “writes Silver.
For the record: depending on the year, it was reported to be sunny and 25 degrees in Los Angeles on Election Day.
