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OPA-LOCKA, FLORIDA (Dagbladet): America turns upside down the day before Election Day. Donald Trump gathers thousands here on the outskirts of the Miami metropolis in the early hours of Norwegian time on Monday.
Today is the last sprint for the candidates.
Joe Biden has a solid lead over Donald Trump in the polls. If he falls in every major state, he is a huge favorite to win Tuesday’s presidential election.
Its lead is bigger than Clinton’s in 2016 and has been stable for a long time. This does not mean that nothing has been decided yet, and the fear of the Democrats is a scenario similar to that of 2016.
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Needs big flaws
In the first place, it was the polls that at the time underestimated Trump. If you compare the election result to the poll average, Trump scored 4.8 percentage points better in the 2016 actual election, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Trump Victory: – Stupid Theories
An even bigger flaw in the 2016 opinion polls is needed to give it a shot this year. This is happening at a time when most polling stations are much more aware of picking Trump voters that they did not get four years ago.
It occurs after the vast majority have submitted their latest polls in this election campaign over the weekend.
Sweep in independent
Trump’s recipe for success in the last period of the election campaign, including the determined sprint we are in now, was, among other things, his great mobilization of independent party voters.
In average polls for the Real Clear Politics website, Biden leads by 7.2 percentage points. In the aforementioned FiveThirtyEight, Biden leads by 8.6 percentage points.
The United States has been bombarded in recent days with polls from television channels, newspapers, universities and electoral institutes. One of these Trafalgar, Trump consistently gives higher numbers in polls than other institutes. They give him leadership in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida, contrary to average polls.
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The institute believes they have much better methods of capturing “Trump shy” voters. However, the methods are sacrificed by FiveThirtyEight founder and survey guru Nate Silver.
Believes 700 deaths are due to election rallies
Cold laughs
A poll this weekend gave many Democrats and Biden supporters goose bumps. Then came the respected local newspaper Des Moines Register in Iowa with a poll that showed great leadership from Trump. The poll showed a seven percentage point lead for the president and that he had taken a major hit from independent voters.
At the same time, Iowa is a state in which Donald Trump won by as much as 9.6 percentage points against Hillary Clinton, and therefore Biden “shouldn’t be able to compete.” Yet it has happened and the latest poll is far from devastating for Biden.
Yet it is events here in Florida and in Pennsylvania that have worried Democrats the most in recent days. There are a total of 49 voters Trump depends on to win.
Looting and field
According to the Washington Post, Democrats’ self-esteem has eroded in recent weeks with clear signs of a more even election in the state, making the party eager for Trump’s victory.
Biden bus surrounded by Trump supporters
Avisa points to recent violence and looting in Philadelphia after the Walter Wallace police shooting. They fear it may help law and order candidate Trump.
They also fear that rural voters will turn out in large numbers for Donald Trump in recent days and that less-than-expected support among Democrats could be devastating.
I got cheers
The Battle of the Midwest
Another major fear is Biden’s mixed message about the controversial oil extraction method of fracking, which is strong in Pennsylvania.
The newspaper was present at a public meeting for Donald Trump in Reading, Pennsylvania, on Saturday. There he approached the violence and looting in Philadelphia and Biden’s statements on fracking to the great enthusiasm of the many thousands present.
The fact that Trump attended four of those rallies in Pennsylvania on Saturday only creates fear among Democrats. On the last day of the election campaign, Monday, he also travels to Scranton, Biden’s hometown. Trump won the state by less than one percentage point four years ago.
The fight that changed Biden
Worse than clinton
But even here in Florida, concern among Democrats is great. Donald Trump has the last public meeting on Sunday, where he stands on stage at Opa-Locka about a 20-minute drive from downtown Miami.
Especially in Miami, Democrats are now ringing the alarm bells, according to Politico. The website writes that no Democrat can win the state without a huge turnout and a big win in the big city.
As of now, participation in the city is lower than in 2016. Although Hillary Clinton won in Miami by 29 percentage points, she still lost the state by 1.2 percentage points.
The party fears that young and less loyal Democratic voters will abstain from voting. Several party members believe that the Biden campaign’s decision not to knock on doors in the state may be decisive.
Trump responds after measuring the crisis
New threats
Republicans have also challenged the legitimacy of a series of early and mail ballots in various states, and have initiated lawsuits to invalidate several of the ballots.
More than 93 million people have already voted in advance. Almost 60 million of them are votes by mail. In states that report party affiliation, where 45 million have already voted upfront. 45 percent of those who have voted Democrats, 30 percent are Republicans.
Trump threatens to declare himself the winner long before the election result is ready Tuesday night US time, advisers say, according to Axios. Trump himself denies it.
