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There are only a few days left until Americans go to the polls to cast their vote in the presidential elections. If the polls are to be interpreted, President Donald Trump must leave the White House on January 20, when Democrat Joe Biden can be sworn in.
The Realclearpolitics website, which measures the average of all polls, gives Biden a 7.8 percent vote lead, while statistician Nate Silver’s acclaimed model, which analyzes polls in individual states and a host of others factors, it only gives Trump a ten percent chance of winning. the chose.
In other words: if you had to bet on who would win the election, it would clearly be safer to bet on Biden. OR?
President-betting
Since the 19th century, it has been common to gamble money on US presidential elections. According to the Newstatesman website, it was not uncommon for newspapers to report weekly on the odds that could be obtained from different presidential candidates before elections.
What may seem a bit special is that the odds you get from the two candidates this year do not reflect the probability of victory as it appears in opinion poll models. In other words, the bookies, those who offer gambling odds in the presidential election, consider Trump to be more likely to win than statisticians.
A recent report from investment bank Goldman Sachs states that Biden’s probability of winning is just a little over 60 percent based on the betting market – that is, far less likely than various survey models suggest.
For example, if you bet $ 1,000 on Trump to win, and he turns out to be right, the payout will be approximately $ 1,800, depending on the service you use.
Various possible causes
In its report, Goldman Sachs highlights two possible reasons for the gap between what the survey models say and what the betting market says:
- Opinion polls in tipped major states show Biden a smaller advantage than the national average.
- The betting market seems to expect Trump to do better than the polls suggest.
The first reason is explained by how the US presidential elections work. It is not necessarily the case that the candidate with the most votes wins. To ensure electoral victory, one must have the largest number of votes in the so-called electoral college, where each state has a certain number of votes, based on the number of inhabitants of the state. In other words, it’s about getting the most votes in enough states to secure a majority in the electoral college.
In some states that are expected to have a lot to say about the election outcome, Biden’s lead is less than the national average, meaning there is greater uncertainty associated with the election outcome in states that may be decisive.
The second reason can possibly be explained by the fact that most polls suggest that Trump would lose the 2016 election. Goldman Sachs writes that this may contribute to bookmakers hoping for the final result of this year’s election. deviate accordingly from this year’s polls. (Terms)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and / or our suppliers. We would like you to share our cases via a link, which leads directly to our pages. Copying or other use of all or part of the content may only be made with written permission or as permitted by law. For more terms, see here.
