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Florida. Ohio.
Two states to win if you have a plan to occupy the White House.
This is the opinion of the American researcher Anders Romarheim from the Department of Defense Studies (IFS).
“On the modern electoral map, from 1996 to today, no one has won without Florida and Ohio,” says Romarheim.
– Bill Clinton won in 1992 without Florida, John F. Kennedy won in 1960 without Ohio, but other than that, these two states in many cases become an expression of the national weighting of the two candidates. So I’m pretty sure if one of these candidates wins both states, then he wins the election, he says.
Trump’s dark message
Creative math
To win the US presidential election, you must have the votes of a minimum of 270 voters.
Florida has 29 voters. Ohio is 18. If the state wins, it gets everyone’s votes.
– It is possible to make creative calculations about what else these states can be replaced with, but then the basic political DNA of the individual state is not taken into account, says Romarheim.
The candidate who won Florida has won every election since 1992. A Republican has never become president without winning Ohio.
Disappointed Trump fan: – Recession
Golden Rule
American researcher Hilmar Mjelde, from the Norce research center, is not so sure that you will win the election, if you have both Ohio and Florida.
– There is only one rule of thumb: get to 270, and both candidates have several paths towards that goal, Mjelde writes in an email to Dagbladet.
He points out that Obama won both Indiana and Virginia in 2008. These are states that have traditionally been Republicans, and therefore surprisingly, it was for Obama.
– But if Trump loses Ohio and Florida, he will likely lose several other auspicious states as well. Ohio and Florida have become more Republican over time, so the two states are ripe fruit for Trump, relatively speaking, Mjelde writes.
Writing
It is likely to be close in precisely these two states.
RealClearPolitics calculates the average of a series of surveys.
In the past week, polls in Ohio show that Trump and Biden are exactly the same. Both have 46.2 percent support for the average measurements.
But the measurements are different. The following graphic shows the measurements for FiveThirtyEight. At the time of writing, Trump has a 0.8 percentage point lead in Ohio.
The figures on the map are continually updated.
No data available yet
– voting votes
Biden: –
Triumph: –
In Florida, Biden currently has a 2.2 percentage point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight.
– If there is a deadlock in Ohio and Florida, I suspect this election will be much closer than what opinion polls have expressed so far, says Romarheim.
Biden clearly leads the measurements and has done so for a long time.
In Arch-Republican Texas, Biden is behind Trump in polls. Just 0.9 percentage points separate the two on Friday afternoon.
Romarheim has no doubts about what will happen if Biden wins Texas.
– What I dare to say for sure is that if you take Texas, you will win. I am absolutely sure.
