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Deleleh Foye (55) has only voted once before, on Barack Obama in 2008. This time he got help from Erin Durkin (right, 38) to go to the polls. Photo: Bjørge, Stein
DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA (Aftenposten): The loss of impact in 2016 means that many are making reservations even though there is much to be said for the Democrats’ victory on Tuesday.
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– I’m so anxious and nervous. Then I felt like I had to do something, says Erin Durkin (38).
She is sitting in a gray van outside a school in North Carolina, waiting for two wild strangers. Erin has brought you here so you can get a pre-vote.
The 38-year-old lawyer is one of many volunteers who take people without their own cars to polling stations. She says it makes her feel useful in a time marked by uncertainty and helplessness. Also, you want to make sure that everyone who wants to can vote. She is a Democrat herself, but the offer applies to everyone.
– In fact, I drive a lot of people who have never voted before. Many of them are adults in their 40s and 50s. But this time they will participate, says Erin.
The Home Party has long been the largest in the United States. 45 percent of the voting population did not participate in the 2016 elections. But this time things seem to be different. Goes to a new participant record. More than 80 million have already voted as of this writing.
The high turnout and many early votes are a clear advantage for Democratic candidate Joe Biden. Most people probably would have predicted a clear victory if it weren’t for Trump’s surprising return in 2016.
– I think many people understand that this is an important choice. They understand that there must be a clear and distinct result, that there is no question who the winner is, says Erin.
But even though both opinion polls, turnout, and her own observations indicate a win in the Joe Biden fight on Tuesday, Erin can’t bring herself to believe it.
– We remember 2016, she says.
Solid management
Erin is far from the only one who doesn’t dare to believe that she will lead to victory next Tuesday. Analysts and many Democrats operate with the same reservation: It looks good for Biden, but “remembers 2016.”
Much is still different from four years ago. Joe Biden has held a solid lead over Donald Trump all year in the polls. Now there are only a few days left until the elections, and the numbers are still valid.
Pollsters have also improved their methods considerably in the last four years, and more people are taking the pulse of inflection states.
Many have already voted. There also appear to be far fewer voters who have not decided than last time. At the time, many of them voted for Trump in recent days.
Biden leads in most lash states, including here in North Carolina. Some even believe that he may have a chance to win states like Texas and Georgia. Former congressman and presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke tells Politico that he is disappointed that Biden did not visit Texas. The state is the second most populous state in the United States and has 38 voters.
Texas was moved from “probably Trump” to “unclear” by the Cook Political Report website. They point out that Trump must now win all tipped states classified as “unresolved” to get enough voters to win.
There is clear and strong support for Biden Harris in this area of North Carolina. Photo: Bjørge, Stein
What can Trump win from?
However, not everyone is equally certain that Trump will go to defeat. Some information speaks in favor of the president:
- Trump surprisingly seems to get a higher share of black and Latino votes than he did in 2016. That gives him an edge he didn’t have four years ago. In return, Biden appears to be kidnapping more white and older voters than Hillary Clinton.
- Trump won last by mobilizing for a large turnout in “his” areas. He is doing the same this time. Trump is running a much more aggressive election campaign than Biden, with frequent demonstrations. It seems to have an effect in Florida, among other places.
- The crown’s situation means that forecasts may be more uncertain than before, because it is not known how much attendance will affect on election day.
Can be weather vane
Still, it’s hard to believe that Trump can pull this down once again. Biden now has a tight lead even here in North Carolina. The state will be one of the first to report a significant result on election night. It can tell a lot about which direction the choice is taking.
North Carolina has 15 voters. It will be very difficult for President Trump to win the election if he loses here.
Outside the Durham polling station, Deleleh Foye (55) comes out after casting his vote. He is 55 years old, but has only voted once. That’s when President Barack Obama won in 2008.
Now Erin has led her to vote again. Why this time?
– I just want a president who is better. It’s as simple as that, Deleleh says.
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