– We just have more money to spend – E24

– This is exceptionally strong growth, says Øystein Dørum, NHO’s chief economics officer.

NHO expects Christmas trade to grow 7.6 percent from 2019 to 2020. They define Christmas trade as all retail in November and December, and this year they estimate it will reach NOK 126 billion.

– What’s going on? The answer is that parts of the consumption of services have been “banned” this year and it has been more difficult than before to spend money abroad, says Dørum.

Last year, Christmas shopping ended at 117 billion kronor, according to NHO.

Dørum claims that Norwegians have moved consumption from abroad inland and away from services and goods during the crown pandemic.

– We just now have more money to spend at the store. Not because of better advice, but mainly because we’ve been forced to spend more money this way.

NHO forecasts expect this change to continue through Christmas, with some minor adjustments.

We spent 2000 kronor more in December

Each of us will spend NOK 12,160 on retail sales in December, according to NHO’s forecast. That is about 2,000 crowns more than what we spent the rest of the year.

The figure includes groceries, which account for about a third of the average man’s December budget. However, there are other items that can add to your holiday shopping spree.

Games and toys increased their turnover by 235% in December, while goldsmiths had a turnover by 172% more. Third among most traded goods are books, which sell for 150 percent more in December than the rest of the year.

In total, merchandise trade increased by 21 percent in December 2019, compared to the other months of the year.

– I’m starting to hurt thinking about what I’m going through, says Dørum.

For him, the solution of what to do for those who have often been experiences.

– I have given tickets to the theater and concerts, and a trip abroad to my loved one. Now there will be fewer experiences under the tree. If you’re going to have the same budget for Christmas gifts, there will be more items under the tree, he says.

NHO’s forecast reflects this shift from services to goods.

– Where should it turn out? Asks the chief economist and answers:

– There are limits on how much more you can spend on games, toys, books, and more. But maybe the goldsmiths will have a better year. It is a place that you can climb quite easily. You still buy only one piece of jewelry, but it may be more expensive

Dørum also mentions IT, data, telecom and wine and spirits as categories in which we can end up with more expensive versions this year.

Christmas shopping is contagious until November

Black Friday and other advance offers have led to November having almost as much trade as December. This year, NHO estimates that 48.2 percent of holiday purchases will be made even before Advent.

– I think Black Friday is symptomatic of something else happening. Some stores start selling Christmas shopping in November, and then the rest have to keep going so as not to miss the market, says Dørum.

Black Friday takes place on the fourth Friday in November, the day after the American Thanksgiving holiday. This year, the day falls on November 27.