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Joe Biden’s lead has shrunk dramatically in the TV 2 average of recent polls in the United States. The Democrat leads by 5.8 percentage points, compared with 7.2 points just two days ago.
– This is quite dramatic and means that the race may be more open than we have seen so far, says Terje Sørensen, TV 2 election analyst.
At the same time, Sørensen emphasizes that Trump will soon have nothing else to do. In recent days, the president has mobilized strongly among Republican voters, but he is also dependent on more Biden voters switching sides.
– If Trump wants to increase further, he must reverse the slightly negative terms of trade with Biden. It is demanding.
In any case, the trend points to a much smoother run than before the last debate.
– We are heading towards a situation where it is difficult to name a winner, says Sørensen.
If Florida smokes for Biden, this will depend on the tip states in the Midwest. There, local rules mean it will take a long time to count the votes.
Remember that Biden can win the votes by more than 4 percentage points but still lose the battle for the White House.
The states of inclination
Trump takes Arizona away from Trump and gets 11 new voters. Graphics: Helge Knudsen / TV 2
In the auspicious states, Trump is back on the offensive in his “first line of defense,” that is, the states he won by the narrowest margin in 2016. Today, Trump snatches Arizona and all 11 state voters from Biden. Therefore, Trump has 231 voters, while Biden has 307. To become president, Trump needs 39 more voters. If he succeeds in taking Florida, he will also gain 29 new voters and are on the right track. As the table below shows, in practice there is a dead race in the pensioner state.
In the “second line of defense,” Trump also strengthens his position. The softest of these states is North Carolina, where it differs by 2.26 percentage points.
Blue states at stake?
When the distance at the national level has become so small, it is important to follow a wider range of tilt states. For example, can Trump go on the offensive in blue states that seemed pretty safe until now?
– We should pay close attention to Nevada and Minnesota, says Terje Sørensen. He’s particularly interested in Minnesota, which with its unrest has long been the focus of Trump’s “law and order” strategy. Now the numbers are weakening for Democrats in the state.
In Nevada, the arrows have been pointing towards a tighter race for several weeks and today the red and blue curves are getting very close. At the same time, there is still a long way to go before the situation becomes dramatic for Biden.
Recent measurements
TV 2’s weighted average now shows smoother execution than websites such as Realclearpolics and Nate Silver’s Fivethirtyeight.com.
– Nate Silver’s average is based on measurements taken over a much longer period of time. Our average mainly captures the measurements that have been published after the last debate, explains Terje Sørensen.
He says the next few days will be exciting.
– The big test will be this afternoon and night. There are many measures and we have a better idea of where we are going.
