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The dream of a historic victory in the state with the second-highest number of voters is getting closer and closer for Democrats.
President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden are now on an equal footing in a new poll among likely voters in the state of Texas. Both receive 47 percent support in the Quinnipiac University survey.
Thus, Biden is beginning to take a firm stance against Trump in what has been a traditional Republican state for decades. Trump has previously led polls for the state.
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In Quinnipiac’s previous Texas poll, released Sept. 25, Trump had 50 percent support, while Biden had 45 percent.
“Biden and Trump are now facing a stalemate in Texas, and the stage is set for a fist battle over 38 voters,” said Tim Malloy, an analyst at Quinnipiac University, in a statement.
1,145 likely voters participated in the poll, which was conducted October 16-19. The margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.
The last time the Democrats won Texas was when Jimmy Carter won against Gerald Ford in the 1976 presidential election.
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Another poll, also conducted by Quinnipiac, shows that Republicans are leading the race for the Senate in Texas. Sen. John Cornyn (Republican) leads with 49 percent support against MJ Hegar (Democrat), who garners 43 percent support. A third of the 100 senators in the Senate also run for election.
Voters in Dallas, Texas take advantage of the opportunity to vote early.
Photo: Lm Otero (AP)
States with the most voters
In the American electoral system, it is not the number of personal votes (popular vote), but the number of electoral votes that determines the winner of the election. Voters, who have made an advance promise about which candidate they will vote on, vote on behalf of the voters.
There are 538 electoral votes (which make up the Electoral College) distributed in all states. Most states (with the exception of Maine and Nebraska) have a “winner takes all” principle. This means that the candidate who gets the most votes in a state gets all the voters in that state.
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The candidate who obtains 270 electoral votes has won the elections. Therefore, the result in the so-called inflection states is decisive for the final result. California has the most voters (55), followed by Texas (38), Florida (29) and New York (29).
Republican bastion
The Biden campaign has recently realized that they actually have a chance to win what has traditionally been a Republican state. That is why they have spit millions on television commercials in Texas. His wife Jill Biden has also been campaigning in the state recently.
The fact that Biden is now taking on Trump in Texas means Republicans can no longer take the state for granted and will likely have to work hard to secure a victory in Texas.
It has been 30 years since the Democrats won such a large state, which has traditionally been a Republican stronghold. It happened when Democrats took the lead in California, which is the largest state in the United States.
Urbanization, immigration from typical Democratic states like California and New York, as well as the growing number of Latin Americans, are cited as some of the explanations for Democrats becoming increasingly entrenched in Texas.
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Clear Biden Leadership in Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac has also conducted a recent poll of likely voters in the state of Pennsylvania, where Biden garners 51 percent support against Trump’s 43 percent. Five percent have yet to be decided. The survey had 1,241 respondents and operates with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
In FiveThiryEight’s national average poll, Biden gets 52.1 percent support against Trump’s 42.2 percent.
The states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Arizona are considered the top tip states in the 2020 election.
According to RealClearPolitics’ average daily poll of these six tipped states, Biden now has a 49.4 percent lead against Trump’s 45.3 percent.
Biden leads the average measurements for all six lash states. The race is closest in Florida and North Carolina, where the difference is only a few percentage points.
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