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In 15 days, the American people will decide if four new years go with Donald Trump or if they are ready for new news with Joe Biden behind the levers in the White House.
The trend in the election campaign so far has been that Biden has had a pretty clear advantage. The latest figures from TV 2 show that the 77-year-old holds up and increases his lead from 7.8 points to 8.2 points.
Tilt states
The president of the United States is not elected directly by the people, but by 538 voters nominated by all 50 states and the capital, Washington.
Voters should, in principle, vote for the candidate who receives the most support among the voters in the state to which the voters belong.
The number of voters is unevenly distributed among states by size, and therefore some states are more important to win than others.
These states are called inflection states.
Leaning states are states where Republicans and Democrats are relatively even, and where they have switched to pull the longest straw.
This year, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona are considered the most important changing states.
Decided in 2016
And it was precisely this that turned the electoral campaign upside down four years ago. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton received nearly three million more personal votes than Donald Trump, but as she won several crucial tip states, Trump was elected the new president.
Trump charmingly inquired in a democratic state: – A battlefield
The same could happen again this year, several American commentators believe.
American TV 2 historian and commentator Hans Olav Lahlum says that while Trump is clearly behind in national polls, he is coming significantly closer in some of the tipping states that can be absolutely crucial.
– Although Trump in many ways ran a simpler campaign than Clinton in 2016, he hit specific efforts well with many visits from him and his family in important tip states, Lahlum says.
And Trump is trying to repeat the formula for success this year. This weekend alone he has visited Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Among other things, he used the Nevada rally to attack Biden, brag about his economic policies, and urge voters to vote.
Danger signs for Trump
American commentator Are Tågvold Flaten agrees. Tilt states can change the result.
– Even though Biden clearly leads at the national level, it’s the changing states that matter. For Biden, it’s good to see that he’s well placed in the states they decided in 2016, like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, says Tågvold Flaten.
However, he thinks a red flag for Trump is that he is spending a lot of money in states that he should earn, such as Georgia and Arizona.
But what does it take for Trump to change this? Lahlum believes that one thing in particular will be important.
– You must keep all the statuses that you won last. If you lose Florida, you are effectively lost, and if you lose North Carolina, which comes early on election night, it also goes wrong. But if he wins both by a narrow margin and surprises in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, then he is very close. Then you can earn five percent less nationally if all goes well, he says.
– Special
American TV 2 commentator Eirik Bergesen says that it is currently impossible to know who will actually win in these tipping states.
– But what we see is that Biden also has a clear advantage here. But now states that were thought to be safe Republican states are at stake, and that’s very special, Bergesen says.
According to the American commentator, the figures show that currently between five and six percent of voters are not sure. There are far fewer than before.
– What stone have been the insecure voters during the last four years? Is there really something else to wonder about? There are such big differences between the candidates, so it shouldn’t be that way, he says.
Bergesen believes that what the electoral campaign will decide is to get people to the polls.
– The problem last time was that a lot of people thought Hillary was going to win anyway, so they ended up not voting. Trump must get those who normally don’t vote and those who don’t normally vote to vote democratically, he says.
