Arbeidsliv, Sparebank 1 SR-Bank | Big Differences in the Labor Market: See Which Industries Look Bright and Dark in 2021

STAVANGER (Nettavisen Økonomi 🙂 Three times a year, Sparebank 1 SR-Bank checks the temperature among 600 companies in southern Norway. After a few months with lots of lead due to the coronavirus and falling oil prices, about half of companies expect an economic recovery in 2021.

But behind the relatively neutral development, there are big differences between the various industries.

Among the companies dedicated to commerce, construction and industry, the majority are positive for the next twelve months.

For oil companies, tourism, culture and transportation, the environment is much bleaker.

– There is a lot of spare capacity and many unemployed in the Norwegian economy. In the Business Trend Survey, we look for bright spots that can help improve the situation. Unfortunately, we don’t see many bright spots right now. It’s good that the decline is flattening out now, but what we expect to see is growth that provides an improvement in the economy, says chief economist Kyrre Knudsen at Sparebank I SR-Bank.

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Oil companies are struggling: – Surprising

For companies that have more than a third of the turnover related to the oil industry, it has been five years since the financial situation was as bad as in the last twelve months. Looking ahead, companies look sadly at the year ahead and only 42 percent expect a rebound.

– It is surprising that oil companies report that there has already been a significant decline. Activity on the Norwegian continental shelf, partly as a result of the support package in June, is estimated to remain roughly unchanged this year compared to last year. Given that future expectations are in line with the announced decline on the Norwegian platform in 2021, it indicates that companies cannot make up for this with activity in other areas, says chief economist Knudsen.

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The chief economist notes that supportive measures from the authorities and increased use of oil money have meant that the recession in Norway has been less than in other countries. The key policy rate has been lowered, the Norwegian krone has weakened, at the same time we have bought more goods and companies have been working on restructuring.

However, Norway is far from protected from what is happening abroad, with Knudsen pointing to the new coronation closures, the US presidential elections, the US-China trade war and Brexit, as future events that could create disturbances in the Norwegian economy.

– It will be exciting to continue further development. It’s important to create activity and get people back to work. Here, both public spending and the restructuring of people and companies play a crucial role, says the chief economist.

Read more: Unemployment fell in September

Most Positive Oslo Companies

While companies in the Oslo and Agder area expect a slight improvement from the current situation in the next twelve months, Vestland and Rogaland believe that activity will drop somewhat.

– For Vestland and Rogaland, it is a combination of tourism in particular, oil exposure and some decline in construction which means activity is low. In Oslo, among other things, the housing market is causing a rebound in construction, while in Agder there is a positive development in retail, explains Knudsen.

Among industries, companies in industry, construction and retail are the most positive:

If, on the contrary, we look at the oil companies, there is more pessimism to track. Especially on pending orders and investments, it seems dark:

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