China deal could provide up to 160 billion in higher exports – E24



[ad_1]

The Ministry of Trade and Industry dramatically raises its expectations about how much export earnings may increase if Norway concludes a free trade agreement with China.

Trade and Industry Minister Iselin Nybø (V) believes that Norway and China will reach an agreement on a free trade agreement in months rather than years.

Terje Pedersen / NTB

Published:

Previous calculations show that revenue from goods exports may increase by NOK 29 billion over ten years if Norway puts such an agreement in place.

Now completely different numbers are put on the table.

In fact, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry has recalculated, now based on a study by the Swedish Chamber of Commerce. In this study, it is estimated that free trade agreements can lead to an increase in trade of 50 to 170 percent in ten years.

In that case, one can speak of NOK 47-160 billion in higher export earnings to China.

– They are large numbers. That says something about the potential of trade to create value, says Trade and Industry Minister Iselin Nybø (V).

also read

WTO: Trump’s tariffs on China are illegal

Waiting for a deal in a few months

Norway is now in the final phase of negotiations with China. Nybø cannot promise that there will be a deal this year, but is aware that it will not be long.

– We are talking about months rather than years, he says.

Delegations have not physically met for a full round of negotiations since September last year. They then met in Wuhan, the Chinese city of millions where the corona eruption was discovered about three months later.

In hindsight, the discussions have continued via email and in video meetings, with the exchange of text suggestions back and forth. The all-digital way of working has slowed progress.

– These are demanding negotiations, says Nybø.

– But our goal is that we can also end the negotiations digitally, so that we do not depend on being able to meet physically again.

also read

Bloomberg: You can’t sell Tiktok without China’s go-ahead

Distributor and more

China is by far the largest of the markets with which Norway is in trade negotiations. But negotiations are also underway with Ecuador, India, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.

Overall, the Ministry of Trade and Industry believes that agreements with these countries can give Norway higher export earnings of NOK 70-200 billion over the next ten years.

– This shows what free trade really has to say, says Nybø.

But there is a political climate these days where international trading systems are under pressure and where more people question the value of free trade. We see that protectionism is increasing.

Exactly how much export earnings grow depends on economic growth in Asia and the evolution of global trade patterns.

The Ministry has not calculated what the agreements will mean for the importation of goods into Norway.

Limited access

In negotiations with China, tariffs on sensitive products, trade in services, investment regulations, and issues related to human and labor rights have been some of the difficult issues.

As far as NTB knows there is still a gap on several issues.

But information about the process is limited, and Nybø is silent on exactly what the disagreements consist of. He is content to say that it will all come one day when the final agreement is presented for approval at the Storting.

– Some questions are more important to Norway and some are more important to China. But I can’t go into what areas are in question, says Nybø.

– It always happens in a negotiation that you have to hold the cards a little to your chest.

mail
[ad_2]