[ad_1]
Labor leader Jonas Gahr Støre receives the worst party poll in history after a week in which multiple profiles leave the sinking ship.
The reasons are different, but in a short time both Jan Bøhler and Geir Lippestad have resigned, while former MP Trond Giske has been thrown into obscurity.
In the recent opinion poll that Kantar carried out for TV 2, the party obtained 18.4 percent support, the worst since the polls began in 1964: – It is a very bad result for the Labor Party. Now, for a long time, we have paid a lot of attention to non-sports activities. We must take responsibility for that ourselves, MP Hadia Tajik tells TV 2.
The Amedia Measurement: Labor Filters in Every Direction
If this is the result of the elections in 2021, the Labor Party will lose 17 representatives in the Storting. The term calculation provides 32 Storting seats, according to Pollofpoll’s estimate, exactly half the number after the 2009 elections.
The most obvious explanation is that the old Popular Party tries to be everything to everyone, but it has become too few.
The red-greens still have a narrow majority, but a would-be prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, not only needs the Center Party and the Socialist People’s Party, but must also rule at the mercy of the Green and Red Green Party.
It is one thing that the majority can fail, another thing is that the Center Party’s Trygve Slagsvold Vedum is emerging as a possible candidate for prime minister now that the party is only 2.2 percentage points smaller than the Labor Party in the gallup. .
If the Center Party becomes the biggest, anything can happen.
GREEN FRIENDS: Last week, Jan Bøhler announced his transfer to the Center Party and takes first place on the list in Oslo with the support of SP leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum.
Photo: Heidi Schei Lilleås
If the sample is representative, the Kantar poll means that the Labor Party has between 16.0 and 20.8 percent support when we factor in margins of error. The decline since September is dramatic and statistically significant.
However, individual measurements may differ. But there is little comfort in the averages from Pollofpoll’s national opinion polls. They show the party has struggled with headwinds since last spring, averaging 20.6 percent in October.
12 GREAT YEARS: The Labor Party has several lean years, but the decline has accelerated in the last five years.
Photo: Pollofpolls.no
The Labor Party also receives ugly support in Sentio’s poll for Nettavisen and Amedia. Also in this case, the decrease is significant, from 25.4% in the second quarter to 23.1% today. With a sample of 9,000 respondents, the poll is more accurate, and Sentio’s poll shows that the Labor Party has between 22.1 and 24.2 percent support.
Our survey shows that the Progress Party has regained its shape, while the Center Party is at a high and stable level.
What are the voters doing?
In large numbers, voters have long fled the Labor Party. From election to election in 2009-2017, the party lost around 75,000 votes in each election, and Sentio’s poll indicates a further drop from 130,000 votes to around 670,000 voters.
About one in five Labor voters from the previous elections are now insecure, and the party is losing voters to both the right and the left. More than 33,000 voters have gone to the Center Party, while SV has won 21,000 former Labor voters, while Rødt and MDG have received around 11,000 net votes each from the Labor Party since the last election.
What’s going on?
When voters filter to both the right and the left, it is difficult to say that there is a protest against the right or left turn of the Labor Party. The Labor Party has lost northern Norway and the interior of the Center Party and the party is fighting in Oslo.
The most obvious explanation is that the old Popular Party tries to be everything to everyone, but it has become too few. The party laments and complains, but it does not present itself as a clear alternative. Disgruntled voters have clearer alternatives in the Progress Party, the Center Party, the Red Party, the Socialist People’s Party and the MDGs.
The problem for party leader Jonas Gahr Støre is that fewer and fewer people know why they should vote for the Labor Party, but they sit on the fence. Although the electorate has moved to the left over time, the Labor Party is trickling like a dark barge on Lake Mjøsa.
P.S! What do you mean? Is there hope for the Labor Party and Jonas Gahr Støre, or does the recession have no end? Write a reader letter!
[ad_2]
