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According to NBC News, the leadership of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has nearly doubled since Tuesday’s debate, and he now leads by 14 percentage points over current President Donald Trump. According to the channel, Biden had an 8 percentage point lead before the much-discussed debate, which has been called the worst presidential debate in history.
In the NBC poll, Biden now has 53 percent of the vote, compared to Trump’s 39 percent.
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The debate may be to blame
The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday of this week, before it was known that Trump had tested positive for corona.
– I’m not surprised. Now these debates don’t tend to have any disgusting impact on polls and election results, but the debate we had now on Tuesday was so special that it may have been more influential than usual, says American expert Svein Melby, researcher. Head of the Department. for Defense Studies (IFS) at Norwegian Defense College, at Dagbladet.
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He believes the debate made it clear to many Americans that Trump does not deserve re-election and that it also showed that Biden is capable of the task.
– Such a marked increase, from 8 to 14 percentage points, is a lot, says Melby, who also notes that opinion polls have been stable in favor of Biden for a long time.
– It is very difficult to see that Trump will have great opportunities to reverse this long-term trend.
Principal Investigator Hilmar Mjelde of the Norce Research Center believes that Trump has failed in his strategy against Biden.
– Trump has portrayed Biden as a dangerous radical and too sick to be president. But in the debate, it was Trump who seemed out of control and who is now lying on a cot.
Taper in crown
A poll conducted by Ipsos on behalf of Reuters in the wake of the president’s crown diagnosis also shows that Biden is gaining a growing share of the electorate, with a somewhat more moderate increase compared to the NBC poll.
Hills’ poll shows that 51 percent of those who participate have plans to support Biden, while 41 percent will support the incumbent president.
The poll also found that there is still great dissatisfaction with Donald Trump’s handling of the crown pandemic.
The virus rages in the inner circle
– It does not benefit Trump
Associate Professor Hilde Restad at Bjørknes Høyskole tells Dagbladet that one or two polls mean “nothing,” but she also notes that the polls have been in favor of the Democratic candidate for a long time, and that the positive response from the crown does not facilitate things for Triumph.
“Not only has he been irresponsible and there has been a lot of infection in the White House, but this is a case where he has not gained anything, and you would think that this only leads to increased attention that does not benefit Trump.” says Restad. .
Fight for the president
– It goes against a change of president
After the president walked out on Friday with a positive test result, it has also become difficult to keep attention away from driving.
– What has happened is the worst imaginable for Trump. He’s wanted to draw attention to other areas, but instead now it’s about the crown and all the weaknesses in its handling, says Melby.
He believes it is now “reasonably certain” that a replacement will be made in the Oval Office on November 3.
– I think most have long ago concluded that he does not deserve re-election and wondered if Biden is a viable alternative. If the answer is yes, then now you have also lost the opportunities you had to reorient the election campaign.
Restad also notes that Biden has been in the lead for a long time.
– It is better than most of the presidential candidates in the last elections, but at the same time it is about national polls, and it will be about the different inflection states, and if so as a result the suppression of votes and problems with the Holding elections in a pandemic could go in Trump’s favor, Restad believes.
Investigators believe that Trump now appears to be in the same position as Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George Bush in 1992. Both lost the election.
– At the same time, Trump can never be ruled out. He’s not so far behind Biden in the tip states that it’s over. This is not over, there are still four weeks left. Trump is a loser, but I give him a 40 percent chance of winning, given he bounces back, and I hope he does, says Mjelde.
