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The most important reason the Sentrum party has emerged is that individual members who lost line elections internally at KRF in 2018 have felt politically homeless and have worked for a new party.
Therefore, a new line of conflict in society is not the driving force, as has been the case with previous party formations that have been successful and have settled:
- Socialist People’s Party, which, as a result of the fear of nuclear weapons and NATO policy, established itself as a political security opposition.
- Carl I. Hagen, who channeled popular discontent and created Frp,
- The Green Party, which sparked a growing commitment to the environment and cultivated a green profile.
The most surprising thing about yesterday’s news was that a politician like Geir Lippestad, with a Labor background, is leading the project.
And that none of the strongest profiles in the circle of Knut Arild Hareide or Kjell Magne Bondevik is among the founders.
Several former members of KrF unite to start the Sentrum party.
The consequence for KRF
My assessment is that this is primarily bad news for KrF.
Not because, as it is now, it will lead to a flood of members. But more than the new party it can act as a “watchdog” and reduce KrF’s room for maneuver in difficult negotiations with Frp.
Criticism of FRP cooperation is at the core of the discontent of those who now join the new party.
The party founders obviously could have gained stronger momentum had the FRP not left the government.
When Siv Jensen marched in January, Hareide was able to step in and proclaim that he now entered the constellation that is KrF’s preferred alternative, and legitimize the party for his supporters as well.
At least for many of them.
Despite this, Sentrum can become a problematic opposition and create an agenda that focuses on the loss of Krf rather than a breakthrough.
For a group fighting the barrier, it can be troublesome.
On the other hand, the KrF leadership takes comfort in the fact that none of the leaders of the red side is in charge of the new party.
When many of them during the day have signed up and declared their loyalty to KrF, the party leadership hopes that active support for Ropstad from strong profiles in the red wing, on the contrary, can increase unity in a pressed KrF.
The rest of the center
Neither the Liberal Party nor the Center Party have much to fear from the new formation.
The main policy of the Liberal Party is a platform that overlaps on important points such as refugee policy and the environment and climate. And the fiscal profile does not fit well with the celestial one of the Liberal Party.
District politics and the center-periphery conflict are absent from the Lippestad platform and therefore have little appeal in Center Party circles. The accolades about the EU bolster the argument.
The Green Party may have more cause for concern.
The environmental commitment has meant that MDG has hired former KRF members and especially KRFU. The liberal profile of the Green Party in the recent decision on biotechnology, and the internal dissent on abortion after 12 or 18 weeks in the debate on the MDG program, show that there is a political current of value in the MDGs that could make sense for the new party. However, the concern is not great in the MDG leadership, because voters who have the environment and climate as their most important issue will prefer a safer card than a political rookie in a major parliamentary election.
In the center a slight tremor, but no earthquake
It will be very surprising if the new party enters the Storting with many representatives.
The reason is that the party is shaping up with a program that matches many of the established parties.
As the parliamentary elections approach, the question of the government after eight years with the Solberg government will be high on the agenda.
The most important thing a center-left opposition can mobilize on is the need for a “new course” and a new government.
Lippestad and his new party have declared their support for Støre as prime minister.
But the risk of losing a vote will make the threshold very high, even for voters with a sense of the Center’s idealistic project.
