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Former Liberal Party leader Odd Einar Dørum believes next year’s parliamentary elections will be a thriller of exclusion.
The Liberal Party has recently struggled with support in the polls. In the September Nettavisen and Sentio parliamentary poll, the party scored just 2.6 percent.
In the last year, the ruling party has been above the four percent threshold only twice in Sentio polls, and if the Liberal Party falls below the decisive limit in parliamentary elections in a year, it could mean the end of Erna Solberg (H) as Prime Minister.
The fight against the border barrier will therefore be a battle for the life of the new leader of the Liberal Party, who will be elected at the national meeting of the Liberal Party in Gardermoen this weekend.
– It will be a blocking thriller, says former liberal leader Odd Einar Dørum to Nettavisen.
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The Liberal Party average of all polls in Norway in September is 3.1 percent, according to the summary on the pollofpolls website. This is slightly higher than the August average (2.9).
Matches that finish above the barrier limit are given so-called equalizing mandates in the Storting, so the limit is very crucial for a match. With a result of 2.6 percent, the Liberal Party would lose six of its eight parliamentary representatives and keep two.
The Liberal Party’s support for Senio’s polls this year:
I have more than 50 percent
However, the Liberal Party has a long history to refer to, with very good results. The party was founded in 1884 and is the oldest party in Norway. In the 1900 parliamentary elections, the party won more than half of the votes in Norway, but since then support has waned as more and more parties were established.
In the parliamentary elections of 1930, the Liberal Party obtained 20.2% of the votes, but it was reduced by half in 1953, when it obtained 10% of the votes. After a slight drop in a couple of elections, the party was back in 10th in 1965, and in 1969 the number of votes dropped to 9.4 percent.
Then support plummeted, and the old party stayed in the third century until 1997, when the party again crossed the bar and got 4.5 percent of the vote. In the 2001 parliamentary elections, the Liberal Party again fell below the 3.9% threshold and in 2005 it rose to 5.9%. It then returned to 3.9 percent in the 2009 parliamentary elections, before gaining 5.2 percent in 2013 and 4.4 percent in 2017.
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Door clearance: – Permanent noise transmission
One who knows well the history of the Liberal Party and the fight against the border barrier is former Liberal Party leader Odd Einar Dørum, who was leader of the party from 1982 to 1986 and from 1992 to 1996.
– I have been in these rounds, both above and below the barrier limit. Since the scheme with equalization mandates was introduced in 1999, we have been four times below four percent, and four times we have finished, Dørum tells Nettavisen.
TOP AND BOTTOM: Former Liberal Party leader Odd Einar Dørum is keenly aware of the fight against the four percent lockdown cap, and believes that next year’s elections will be very exciting, especially for the Liberal Party.
Photo: Audun Braastad / NTB scanpix
– Has the discussion on leadership for the support of the Liberal Party ruined much?
– Inside, the discussion about leadership has been a discussion about leadership, but for many voters outside, it has been a transmission of permanent noise that has made people hardly see that the Liberal Party has a practical policy on issues important, says Dørum.
He believes that the recipe for success in the future is clear:
– We must focus on politics, that is what provides opportunities. We are in government with three ministers, so we have good opportunities for that, says the former Liberal leader.
Dørum believes they also see some signs in various county polls that it has been received positively that there was a general recommendation from the election committee for a new Liberal leadership, with Guri Melby as the new party leader.
– The electoral campaign remains and falls when voters see that the Liberal Party can deliver something that is important, and then I think that the Liberal Party with Guri Melby gets a leader of whom many have a friendly opinion, also outside the ranks of the Liberal Party, he says.
He also adds some praise to outgoing leader Trine Skei Grande:
– It must be said here that Trine Skei Grande and her leadership team have led the Liberal Party to cross the barrier twice in a row, and no one has done it before in the eight years that we have had the equalization mandate system, he says.
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– Much of what can happen
Dørum believes that there are two issues in particular that the Liberal Party must present next year.
– Of the two most important issues that concern the Liberal Party, the environment and the school, they are also the most important for voters. So it’s hard work in everyday practical politics that ultimately makes the difference, he says, adding:
– So, of course, it is important for the Liberal Party how to do it in Oslo and Akershus.
He also believes that the new party leader will make a positive contribution to achieve the goal of support beyond the threshold.
– I believe that the new leader of the Liberal Party, who is concerned with finding solutions for people in everyday life on important issues for the environment, education and for those who create companies, entrepreneurs, is important for the Liberal Party. Obviously you have the will to stay in reality to find solutions, says Dørum.
But he also emphasizes that a year is a long time in politics.
– Many things can happen, but I think it will be a barrier thriller for several parties, and definitely for the Liberal Party, he says.
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Left: – Not satisfied
Although the Liberal Party rose from 2.1 to 2.6 percent in Nettavisen’s September poll, the party’s general secretary was not satisfied:
– Good to see that we are making progress on most of the measurements at the moment, but we have a long way to go before we are satisfied. We will work hard to get up in the election campaign and I have good faith that we will succeed. If you want Erna as prime minister instead of Støre, you have to vote for us, Secretary General Marit Meyer told Nettavisen.
This weekend, the Liberal Party will gather for a national meeting in Gardermoen. And within a year, we will know for sure if the party this time ends up crossing the magic barrier and can still sit in the government.
Elections to the Storting will be held on September 13, 2021.
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