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The National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) writes in its latest weekly report that the R number is now calculated at 1.26.
– Reproduction figures show that the national epidemic is likely to increase, states the report.
It is noted that the estimates are uncertain and that the infection situation is considered “relatively stable”.
– The spread of the infection is still at a relatively low level nationally, although it has increased in recent weeks, writes FHI.
– A coating
Health director Bjørn Guldvog says it is “a side way” to put too much emphasis on the R number.
– The background is that when we have a very low infection, there will be more outbreaks before the R number explodes, he tells NTB.
But add:
– Naturally, we notice when it goes from 1. Because we don’t like it to stay there over time, he says.
Since April, R-number calculations in this country have been below 1, but in early July, FHI stated that it was probably close to 1.
In a risk assessment released by the institute in May, it was revealed that the R number was probably already below 1 when the more comprehensive corona measures were implemented on March 12. The highest level was calculated to have been 3.1.
– Great uncertainty
In recent months, there has been relatively little infection and few people have been hospitalized. Then it becomes more difficult to accurately calculate the number of infections.
– It is important to remember that there is great uncertainty associated with estimates from mathematical modeling, which are calculated on the basis of a small number of inputs. Although R is now calculated at 1.26, our assessment remains that the infection situation is relatively stable. But there are many reasons to be vigilant and follow the situation closely, notes department director Line Vold at FHI.
During week 38, 711 people were reported to be infected with coronavirus, compared to 763 at week 37 (27.5 per 100,000 population during weeks 37 and 38 combined).
Health Minister Bent Høie says the development in the R number emphasizes the importance of implementing measures where there are outbreaks and detecting outbreaks early enough.
– We are still in the situation in Norway that there are local outbreaks that can be fought, he says.
It is still the most common infection among young people.
Five counties had an increase in the number of infected: Innlandet, Agder, Møre og Romsdal, Rogaland and Oslo. But in other counties, fewer infected people were reported and 266 municipalities reported no infected people in week 38.
– We see that most infections are reported among young people. The highest number of cases reported at week 38 relative to the population was seen in the age groups 20 to 39 years and 13 to 19 years, says Vold.
FHI models estimate that there have been a total of 69,600 to 92,300 infected in Norway. As for the R number, the latest calculations for the period after September 1 apply.
– The probability that the reproduction number is greater than 1 is 63 percent. The model expects between 0 and 160 new hospital admissions per day for the next several weeks, writes FHI in the weekly report.
