Voters say they will vote for Biden, but doubt he will win

Joe Biden has led almost every poll so far. A small majority of voters still believe that Donald Trump will win the election.

A pollster called you. You have answered questions about age. You are asked about marital status, education, and who you want to vote for. Important social problems are classified. You have given your opinion on whether postal votes will lead to voter fraud.

Then he comes near the end of the conversation: “If you have to guess: when all the votes are counted in November, who do you think will win the presidency, Biden or Trump?”

A button on Trump

In the latest Suffolk University Poll, the majority will vote for Joe Biden. When they have to tip the winner, on the other hand, a small majority have a button on Donald Trump.

– In our polls, Biden leads by 5-7 percentage points, but the leadership fails and passes to Trump when we ask people who they think will win, says David Paleologos to Aftenposten.

He directs the Center for Political Research at the University of Suffolk. It is behind one of the most recognized polls in the US and is rated A on the Fivethirtyeight website ranking.

Trump: fake polls

Voters’ belief in a poll-defying Trump victory also reflects the argument of Trump’s campaign staff. They believe in a quiet majority of timid voters who do not want to tell voters that they are Trump voters, but will be running on Election Day.

In a letter asking his supporters this week, the president gave “false measures” and “false means” the slippery slope: “Ridiculous.” They are trying to trick the American people into believing that I have no chance of winning, but we know that nothing could be further from the truth, “Trump wrote.

Neighbors and enthusiasm

Paleologos points out that in a poll question, people answer what they want to do, who they want to vote for.

– The second question is about who do they think the neighbors and the local community will vote for, says Paleologos.

He believes that Joe Biden’s expectations are lower because he cannot create great excitement among voters. The Democratic Party wanted an older white man who would be everything Trump is not: assertive, calm, and experienced.

– And while Hillary Clinton was heavily hated or loved, Biden is more than a candidate that people ignore, says Paleologos.

Dark and crowded meetings

The election events of the two candidates may also give the impression of more enthusiasm for Trump. The president holds crowded public meetings in airplane hangars. Biden’s staff, for their part, are extremely concerned about infection control and physical distance in their meetings.

LEAH MILLIS, Reuters / NTB scanpix

Election meeting with Joe Biden in Warren, Michigan, on September 9.

Election meeting with Donald Trump in Freeland, Michigan, on September 10.

Measurements last

Paleologos also believes that the impression that recent missing national polls may affect people’s beliefs about Trump.

– People like to say that history repeats itself, says the pollster.

However, she notes that national polls performed better in 2016 than in 2012. They predicted a victory for Clinton of three percentage points, and she got two percentage points more than Trump.

None of the top-ranked institutes at the time conducted surveys in the states where Trump capitalized on his most surprising victories: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They will this time.

Expectations for the duels

Voters also believe that Trump will win the presidential duels on television. The first of the three will take place on September 29.

– This is not so strange. We saw support for Biden drop after every debate among Democrats in the primary campaign. It was always one or more of the others who were chosen as winners, says Paleologos.

Biden is also not known as a great debater. He often fumbles for words, buzzes with deeds, and sometimes stutters. This, says Paleologos, can turn out to be an advantage.

– You may want to go into duels with low expectations and rather exceed them. So viewers may think that “yes, he may actually be president,” says the expert.