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More than 85 percent of those infected went undetected for a long time. Then something happened.
Take a closer look at the chart at the top of the article.
At first glance, it may seem understandable. But the graph explains why infection rates have soared recently, while the National Institute of Public Health continues to believe that the spread of infection in Norway is slowing.
Also read: Erna with a clear warning to the Norwegians: these are the measures that may come
The number of registered infections in Norway has increased dramatically in the last month. However, FHI believes that the infection situation is on the decline.
According to FHI, the R number (reproduction number) after August 1 is 0.71, which means that it is assumed that less and less infected.
FHI estimates of the Rs since the start of the pandemic. If the line is below 1, the infection is coming back.
– Our models consider that the current situation is stable, writes FHI in the report where they estimate the R number.
Discover many more sick
The graph shows what proportion of those infected in Norway are actually detected in testing.
The graph looks confusing, but what is important is the thick line, which is the best estimate of how much is discovered each month. A larger square around the lines means greater uncertainty in the estimates.
The figures are subject to great uncertainty, but the main thing is the sharp increase over time.
In March, April and May, FHI assumed that less than 15 percent of those infected were diagnosed with the disease.
During the summer, the testing capacity has increased significantly.
Also read: Norwegian Health Directorate wants even more testing and infection monitoring
The activity of the test in Norway, and what proportion of those evaluated are positive.
Therefore, the best estimate of FHI is that 2 out of 3 were discovered who were infected with the disease in August. This is as large a proportion as FHI believes they have symptoms of illness.
This means that when the number of newly discovered infection cases today is at the same level as in early April, the actual infection in society at that time was about 4.5 times higher.
Also read: Infection rates are as high as in April, why is the government not panicking?
Big differences between counties
Across Norway, FHI assumes that there are approximately 65,000 people who have been infected since the pandemic began, and that only 17 percent of those who were infected have been detected since the beginning.
FHI’s assessment of where those infected live and what proportion has been discovered in each county.
However, there are big differences between counties.
In Oslo, 1 in 3 is believed to have been discovered, while a worst-case scenario is 1 in 17 in Troms and Finnmark.
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