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Demand for oil will never be as high as in 2019, predicts DNV GL.
Edvard Grieg’s field at Utsirahøyden on the North Sea. DNV GL believes that global oil demand has exceeded its all-time peak.
Håkon Mosvold Larsen / NTB scanpix
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In the new report “Energy Transition Outlook 2020”, rating and risk company DNV GL estimates that the corona pandemic will cause global energy demand to fall by 8 percent in 2020.
At the same time, it will be several years before the global economy makes up for lost time.
Therefore, DNV GL expects energy consumption to be 6-8% lower than previous estimates each year until 2050. This will have important consequences for both climate emissions and the consumption of coal, oil and gas.
Previously, demand for oil was expected to peak in 2023 and then slowly decline towards 2050.
But now DNV GL believes that oil demand will never reach the 2019 level again. Therefore, it appears that peak oil – “peak oil” – has already been reached.
On the other hand, the demand for natural gas is expected to continue growing. DNV GL anticipates that peak natural gas will not be reached until 2035, and that global demand will remain somewhat higher in 2050 than in 2019.
According to DNV GL, CO emissions from the energy sector appear to have peaked in 2018.
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